Day: November 9, 2019

I hear more and more people referring to Elizabeth Warren as the Democratic front-runner, but the national polls just don’t reflect that. She is not beating Biden in any of the recent polls, although they are tied on one.

In the most recent Harvard-Harris poll, Warren is in a distant third, and Biden has as much support as Bernie and Warren added together. (33-18-15)

Warren is, however, the frontrunner in Iowa and New Hampshire, so maybe that’s what the pundits are referring to.

“Democrats in the country’s most pivotal general election battlegrounds prefer a moderate presidential nominee who would seek common ground with Republicans rather than pursue an ambitious, progressive agenda, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of primary voters across six states. As the Democratic candidates intensify their argument over how best to defeat President Trump, their core voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida are counseling them to pursue a political middle ground.”

NOTES:

(1) Biden has large leads in most of those states, although Warren leads a close three-way race in Wisconsin.

(2) Those states still have large numbers of undecided voters

(3) Everyone below Buttigieg is dead in the water, and he ain’t doin’ so well himself, despite his massive war chest.