Shortcut to the full report for Saturday:

The USA’s national indicators are still looking much better than they were before this week:

  • New cases are down about 8% from last Saturday. That is the fourteenth consecutive day of declines, and the 17th decline in the past 20 days.
  • Fatalities are also down, about 13% less than last Saturday. That’s the fifth decline in the past six days.
  • The first decline in new cases began twenty days ago, and the first decline in new deaths began six days ago, precisely 14 days later.
  • Hospitalizations dropped again, and are at the lowest point since July 9.

It is important to note that these current declines are not happening because we ARE doing so well, but because we WERE doing do poorly. Even after that short-term improvement, the USA is still one of only four countries in the world in the red zone for both its new case rate and its new death rate. The four countries are Peru, Colombia, Brazil and the USA. This is not a list we want to be on. We have to do better.

There is also a major negative to consider, America’s testing rate. Positive tests are now more than 8% of all results. Ten states in the USA were above 12% on Saturday.

Note further than five states in the USA are in deep trouble because ALL of the following are true: (1) their new cases rate is higher than any country in the world; (2) their new fatality rate is higher than any country in the world; (3) their rate of positive tests is above 12%. Those states are Mississippi, Florida, Nevada, Georgia and South Carolina.

106 thoughts on “COVID update

  1. College sports are close to being cancelled for the fall season apparently. This has been picking up steam over the course of the day with the MAC conference the first to do it in FBS, the Big Ten pulling back on practice, PAC 12 group of players demands, and Syracuse players refusing to even start practice.

    Schools are worried about liability. All it takes is that one outlier athletes who was in great condition to get the illness and pass for the world to be turned upside down.

  2. This is good news for sure, but I worry that it’s all going to be erased once colleges and schools are back in session — I’m personally of the opinion that that’s going to be a disaster.

    1. Your point seems correct. Every time we have tried to ease up: Memorial Day, 4th of July … we have had to deal with a runaway train about two weeks later.

      One good thing – well, not good, but edifying – some districts will open, some will be all-virtual, some will be mixed, and we will know which are which. We have good “before” numbers, and we will have good “after” numbers for each group, so we should be able to evaluate the consequences of each decision and make future decisions based on reason.

      (As long as Trump isn’t making them.)

      1. yeah, unfortunately many people will die obtaining that info…but it seems human life doesn’t count for all that much in the US these days.

  3. The U of W model is currently predicting 300k casualties by the end of the year…I wouldn’t call that a reason to be optimistic. California has a software issue that caused undercounts in new cases and Florida closed down number of testing locations because of the hurricane…

    1. The numbers are bad, and it will be a long time before they are not, but “down” is good. The fact that both cases and fatalities are dropping is a reason to hope.

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