Two ways to look at the latest developments in Colorado:
(1) “Senate Majority PAC, a group aligned with Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, is pulling its remaining $1.2 million in TV ads out of Colorado in a sign of confidence that former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper has a solid lead over Cory Gardner, the first-term GOP incumbent.”
(2) Despite Hickenlooper’s lead in the polls and Senate Majority PAC’s expression of confidence, a Gardner campaign spokesman, asked to comment on national Democrats’ decision, had a different interpretation. “It’s clear the Democrats also know John Hickenlooper has no chance of winning,” said Gardner spokesman Jerrod Dobkin, who probably added, “Oh, I see. Running away, eh? You yellow bastards! Come back here and take what’s coming to ya! I’ll bite your legs off!”
(It’s possible that Loops has already won. Colorado votes 100% by mail, Loopy is up by some 9-10% in the polls, and the early balloting rush has been astounding.) At the top of the ticket, it appears that Biden will win by a landslide. (Hillary won it by five points in 2016.)
According to 538, the overall national battle for control of the Senate is too close to call. (Slight edge to blue at the moment, but with a lead too fragile to weather the vagaries of October.)
The momentum for Biden and taking over the Senate has gone higher and widened the gap by all measures, not lower, which is pretty astounding. Biden has ran a good campaign to widen the gap, which I did not think was possible with Trump’s polarization and how deep his cult is.
17 days and a debate where Trump is going to be at his most desperate and probably be forced to abide by stronger debate measures, I’m always leery of his sick cult, but it’s heading into the final stage. The more Biden wins by, the less chance Trump could even attempt any fuckery, even though he’ll say the election is rigged regardless and already has the excuse built in.
This used to be a country where money talked and bullshit walked. Maybe it will be again some time.
Hang on Loopy, loopy hang on!
*golf clap*
Hickenlooper Fever: catch it!
538 is not saying the Senate is too close to call. Clicking the headline in the link you shared: “Democrats are favored to win the Senate” with a 73% chance.
73% is too close to call. Way too close. They aren’t calling it, they’re just informing us of the current favorite – slight lead to blue.
The most likely outcome is 51-49, so any change in even a single race makes it a toss-up.
Theoretically, nearly any race is “too close to call”. 538 doesn’t even use that term when assigning levels of certainty to odds. They use this terminology:
* 50 – 54% is “toss up”
* 55 – 69% is “slightly favored”
* 70 – 89% is “favored”
* 90 – 97% is “clearly favored”
* 98%+ is “very likely to win”
Fucking Trump won against 5:1 odds. I guess you can “call” any race, you just might be wrong.
Depends on the modeling, Nate Silver wrote a good column about the failings of the narrative in 2016 and how much of a chance Trump was supposed to have, and he was the only one who gave him fairly decent odds. His model had Trump with a 35% chance three days before election, which was a hell of a lot more than anyone else did.
And lets not forget, it was off the backs of a gap of people in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that could fit into Michigan’s football stadium that decided the election.
Right now Biden has a distinct stable advantage in all three, along advantages in almost all the swing states he doesn’t have to win.
He’s sitting at 87% chance in the same guy’s model, and while nothing is a lock, the whole ‘Trump’s going to do it again because 2016’ narrative is a little old now. I don’t think complacency is any sort of issue this time around, so no one is comfortable, it’s a much different time.