Men favor Trump by a margin of 30 points (62-32) in this poll. (!!)
How depressing is it to be the seated President and be down so far to a Bond villain and complete schmuck with a -14 net favorability rating?
Biden really has to hope that poll is an outlier, but with his own approval rating under water by 19 points, he’s definitely in a jam. There’s more than a year to go until the election, so these polls are not very meaningful, but the way it looks now, he could run unopposed and lose to “none of the above.”
Country is batshit crazy…
“Trump and GOP Rep. Gosar suggest Joint Chiefs boss Mark Milley deserves death“
Typo in the headline, if Trump is involved it should read “…Crushing Biden in a Lardslide”.
I was born in 1968. A great deal happened that year, including multiple assassinations. But perhaps most relevant today is the fact that a sitting U.S. president running for reelection changed his mind and dropped out of the race. That was because there were enough Democratic primary voters angry over the Vietnam War, LBJ feared he might lose renomination. Biden will not lose the nomination because no serious candidate will run against him. It is kind of ironic that the candidate LBJ most feared losing to was Robert Kennedy, but Jr is not a serious candidate. But I am fervently hoping that Biden decides to do right by both the Democratic Party and (more importantly) the United States and decides not to run next year.
Biden was able to win in 2020 because of Trump’s high negatives and the fact that Biden was seen as a relatively middle-of-the-road Democrat and could run a campaign promising changes. Biden now has a record of his own, and that record has quite a few negatives (Afghanistan, the border, and the economy). I think the reason there are more Biden voters thinking of voting for Trump than vice versa is because of buyer’s remorse. See the negatives above. Trump was a horrible president in many ways, but the (pre-Covid) economy was good, and the border was relatively under control. I think January 6th was disqualifying, but I voted Libertarian in 2016 and 2020.
If the GOP were likely to nominate someone other than Trump, I’d be delighted at Biden’s poll numbers. I think almost any other Republican could beat Biden handily, especially someone like Nikki Haley. While I won’t say any other Democrat could easily beat Trump, any mainstream Democrat could. I think Gavin Newsom would beat Trump like a drum.
Biden will probably beat Trump despite what this poll says. But probably isn’t good enough for me where the safety of the Republic is concerned. Trump back in the White House would be a terrible thing if for no other reason than Trump would be much less likely to heed the advice of the grownups in the room. If there are any grownups in the room. I kind of expect him to fill a new administration with people like Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Green. Probably isn’t good enough!
Quick comment on Nikki, not her real first name, Haley. The Rep party is not gonna nominate any female or African-American to be the party’s potus nominee in the foreseeable future ~ let’s say 50/60 yrs.
On the bright side never thought America would elect a Black man potus in my lifetime so was wrong about that. But hey, after (8) yrs of Cheney/Bush all things were possible, eh. Yin/yang.
Repeating, the potus campaign starts after Labor Day next yr. Trump could be on trial in how many states by then 1, 2, 3? Indeed, he may be a convicted felon x 2 or 3 by then also. 😮
Or Trump could spontaneously combust by then. 😛
Stay tuned …
btw, voted for McGovern in ’72 the voting age having been lowered to 18 the previous yr. Figured they lowered the voting age just for me. ✔ Regardless got use to disappointment at an early age.
And not to worry as America survives despite itself. Having said this wish me luck Nov. 5 next yr ~ I’m a poll worker. 🙂
Even with most of the GOP seeming to support Trump, I don’t think they are supporting him because they are racists. There are a large number of Republicans who really want a Black candidate they can vote for just to prove they aren’t racist. I think that is the reason there was so much support for Herman Cain and Ben Carson in recent cycles. I’d be perfectly happy voting for Tim Scott or Nikki Haley for president, but at this point, I’d vote for almost anyone not named Trump.
Given Trump’s level of support, there is no better than ‘probably’ in defeating him.
Being an incumbent is a major positive for most candidates, only Biden can claim that.
The economy is still unsettled by many signs are pointing in a positive direction.
Trump supporters are older and are dying off every day, while there are new younger voters added to the voter rolls every day, a majority of whom support Biden.
It might be accurate that if everybody who voted in 2020 voted again right now that Trump would defeat Biden, but that isn’t the case.
1.Should say ‘the economy is stil unsettled but many signs are pointing in a positive direction.’
The most important point in this is the preponderance of voters who are dying are Trump voters, but also to add: The Republican Party continues to show every day that it literally can not govern.
Trump in 2016 “what have you got to lose?” Jan 2020 America found out ~ democracy!
Indeed, Jim Jones in Guyana had nothing on Trump ~ talk about lemmings to the sea. 😮 Quite the phenomenon ie loyalty to der führer!
Yup…the Scoopy pickle ball crowd are the heart of the Trumpists.
They are mostly not interested in politics and almost universally voted for Biden, which is what alarms me!
Which brings me to another weird thing about that WaPo/ABC poll – Biden and Trump are about even in the oldsters (Biden 48-47), but Biden gets swamped among the youngest voters (55-36).
That youth vote is almost the exact opposite of what happened in 2020, almost down to the exact percentages. Biden won the popular vote in 2020 because he carried the 18-39 group by an overwheming amount, 56-41. There were about 50 million voters aged 18-39, and Biden won that group 28 million to 20 (the rest to third party schnooks). That was more than his entire margin of victory!
I simply don’t get how Biden could go from 15 points up among those 18-39 voters to 19 points down. If that result is real, and I remain skeptical of that, what are the young ‘uns so unhappy about?
Don’t worry, Gavin Newsom has an ongoing shadow campaign for President going on if Biden drops out. Except that his ex-wife Kim Guilfoyle is engaged to Don Jr., so the Trump campaign will know all the dirty secrets and the where buries his bodies. Not to mention Gavin’s wife is a retired actress… a retired soft-core porn actress from movies that aired on “Skinimax”.
Oh what a tangled web “we” weave. And the Clinton’s were “special” guests at Trump’s 3rd marriage. You can’t make this shit up!
Only in America …
btw, Trump was fucking Karen McDougal when Melania was pregnant. ok, nobody cared. Christian/Evangelical/conservative values or some such nonsense! The irony Reps finally got Roe overturned and it may haunt them the next 20/30 yrs, eh. Be careful what you wish for …
Don’t forget Stormy Daniels.
Don’t be rude …
LOL. One of my Trump jokes has always been that Trump would have run for the Father of Lies job but found, much to his disappointment, that the post was already filled.
My GF was born in Alma Ata back in the USSR, family went to Barcelona in 92 and San Fran in ’95 where she went to HS. She calls Putin’s paradise USSR2.
We hit the NW corner of Russia a few years back; “Pitr” (St. P), Novgorod, and Pskov- me for the Battle of the Ice lakefront, Lena to pay her respects where Pushkin is parked. On some downtime in Pskov, we’re watching TV and the Vlad comes on. She starts growling some obviously hostile stuff in Russian at the tube, and growls “later’ at me when I’m looking for a trans. When it was later, I was amazed. Her stuff would have made several sailors blush. And she never cusses.
That visceral hatred toward Putin has largely been passed along to his tovarish Trump. And no Ukraine fatigue for her, 5/8 Russian or not. Her younger brother, born in Barcelona, went wobbly for a bit, leading his little sis to start calling him “the Spaniard”. TG, he’s back from the dark side now.
I visited St. Pete and environs and Novgorod in 2013, the year before the Crimea invasion, as detailed (a bit) in my novel. The book is not about the trip, but was written during it, and my experience there helps to form a framing story for what the book is really about.
My former in-laws come from Tashkent and Alma-Ata. My daughter was born in Uzbekistan, as was the niece that accompanied me to Russia in 2013.
Miniscule world. Miami scored how many points?
There is an Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted around the same time that had Biden leading Trum by 5%.
Most polls continue to show a rougly tied race. The media always highlights likely outlier polls (it’s impossible to say without an actual election if any single poll is actually an outlier.) Had it not been that this poll is more sensational the media would likely be highlighting the Biden +5 poll.
For those who know about the science of polling, unless the sample is wrong, even outlier polls have value (at the 95% confidence level – I.E the famous 19 times out of 20 – a poll is correct within the margin of error of 1 divided by the square root of the sample size.) But, if a lower confidence level is used, then the margin of error for the poll increases.
The upshot is that unless the sample is off, the poll likely still has value at least in terms of some of the subsample results (which also have higher margins of error to begin with) so, this poll still highlights some of Biden’s weaknesses.
Of course, that Biden isn’t well ahead of a person who attempted an insurrection already shows that Biden has weaknesses.
“science of polling” ~ indeed, there is good science and bad science.
As always, tell me who wins PA/MI/WI and i’ll tell ‘ya who wins potus, but it looks good for Biden atm. NV/AZ/GA aside and don’t sleep on FL/OH/IA as the right to choose issue “may” make these states “interesting.”
Unemployment when Carter/Bush41/Trump lost = 7.5%/7.4%/6.7% respectively. Current unemployment = 3.8%. Wages are trending up, inflation trending down.
+ Trump could be in jail. 😮
2024 ~ stay tuned …
Re: Biden not being “well ahead” the Rep party has become the party of autocrats/Fascists/dictators ie Trump’s two main homies are Putin & Kim Jong Un.
Indeed, Trump made it acceptable for bigots/racists/national socialists to come out of the closet! So in that sense he is democratic lol as he has increased voter registration on both sides!
Awakened a sleeping giant! 😮
A Republic, if you can keep it …
Plus we are not in the age of potus political landslides which makes GW’s landslide comment particularly inane! Also, Republicans have won the popular vote in one of the last eight potus elections. Speaking of trends so no Virginia, Trump will not lead Republicans to the promised land.
Which is why Republicans have been the party of voter suppression the last (30 yrs. Indeed, they do understand political trends, eh.
GW’s continued hard on re: meaningless/bogus polls aside ~ Dems over perform in 24 of 30 special elections so far in 2023. 😮 Dems are over performing 2020 by (8) points in special elections so far this year.
Indeed, remember 2020 when Dems were suppose to lose 50/60 seats in the House, but actually gained a Senate seat. ✔ 2024 will be the 1st general election since Trump’s Jan 6 insurrection ie poor loser hissy fit + 1st general election since the Dobb’s decision.
The actual potus campaign usually starts after labor day 2024 and a day is an eternity in politics, but GW please, I beseech thee, continue to post meaningless / irrelevant polls. It’s what you do best dude!
btw, how did that Hershel Walker Senate race turn out? Polls indicated he was gonna win IIRC. 😛 Keep hope alive!
Yielding back the balance of my time …
Dukakis was (17) pts ahead of Bush 41 after the 1988 Dem convention.
And so it goes …
“remember 2022 mid-terms”, not 2020 although 2020 was a pretty good yr for Dems as well running against an incumbent potus!
Indeed, Trump “we” love ‘ya!
I think this poll is complete dogshit, simply because it requires the complete upheaval of the last election by such a volume as to suggest that a massive number of people who voted for Biden will gleefully vote for Trump now. That’s hogwash of the washiest hog. They took this poll smack in the middle of a Jason Aldean concert or something similar to get a hot article.
The only thing I find disturbing about the poll is that the same voters who now favor Trump 52/42 say that they voted for Biden 50-46 in 2020!
The cross-tabs show that 7% of 2020 Biden voters are now leaning to Trump, while only 2% of Trump voters are now persuaded to abandon him to vote Biden.
Unfortunately, I do see that trend here among my pickleball group in the Midwest. Some of the reluctant Biden voters are now deeply upset by retail prices, and are saying things like “enough of my money to Ukraine already.” Too many people believe that they are worse off financially than they were in 2020, even though it is probably not accurate, just because the cost of a shopping cart seems to have increased dramatically. They don’t care that unemployment is low and job creation has been excellent. The economy is personal to them. Of course my observations are just anecdotes, but it worries me that Biden doesn’t seem to be able to sell the “big picture” things on the economy and Ukraine.
And it’s scary that only 2% of Trump voters are willing to abandon him with all that we have found out. Trump has apparently been successful at selling the “political prosecution” line, in contradiction to all of the facts, as evidenced even by some commenters here.
And although immigration doesn’t have any impact on us here, people follow the news and find the overwhelming numbers to be frightening. They feel that Trump would tighten up the scary Southern border. My girlfriend watches ABC News and BBC each night – not Fox and the nutjob channels – and even there she is inundated daily with images of people in the Rio Grande, and graphs of gigantic numbers.
That said, some of the numbers in that poll are insane. Trump up by 30 among men? Trump up by 19 among young voters? Very hard to believe.
Trump will get 47% of the popular vote. Period. No GOP candidate will do better than that. The only question is how loud his supporters are. Just remember that Trump did no better than Romney. Enthusiasm is nice but it doesn’t mean anything if you don’t have the numbers.
Biden will get 49-52% of the popular vote. Hopefully he can shift the inflation blame game where it belongs: Putin and MBS. That’s a big picture thing unfortunately.
The only thing that actually matters is local polling and putting in an effort to shore up areas where its close. The popular vote matters but only up to a point. The electoral college is still the target.
National polls are fucking dumb. The deplorables like who they like and its only a question if they’re willing to get off the couch. Same goes for Dem voters.
Sorry to be ignorant, playgroundpsychotic, but does the MBS in a couple of your recent posts stand for “Mortgage Backed Securities”? And if so, could you explain how they are contributing to inflation? I am very out of touch with finance.
Mohammed bin Salman
He cut production on Saudi oil increasing the cost of gas everywhere. No one touching Russian gas isn’t helping.
I shouldn’t pin all of America’s inflation problems on him but it does make things worse.
MBS is also pro-Trump and doesn’t like Biden. Its distinctly possible that he cut production to make American life more miserable during Biden’s presidency.
You’re still more than welcome to blame any form of banking shenanigans. The banks usually will make things worse. Despite things being worse for the average American, corporations seem to be doing just fine.
Oh, gotcha, playgroundpsychotic. Salman makes a lot more sense in context. Thanks,
You need to remember this is a poll of people who actually answer the phone when an unknown number calls…I don’t. Judging by the crowd at the local mall today and their shopping bags…a lot of people are spending.
I’m not surprised by the poll. I’d honestly take anyone over Biden. At the end of the day it’s all about the economy and illegal immigration and he’s failing on both. I do wish the GOP would give up the abortion issue though. It’s a loser.
Regrettably the Biden administration has not been able to fix the previous administration’s economic mistakes and are taking the blame for it. Nor has he fixed the economic dysfunction caused by the GOP controlled house.
It would’ve also been great if he gave every illegal immigrant a special visa so they could back to work. America’s agricultural, service and construction industries don’t function without them so you may as well create a path for legal work.
Dude’s ancient. I’m just happy he passed the IRA.
Neither Trump nor Biden has done anything substantial or permanent about “The Border”, the only real difference being that Trump says he did.
The economy is not “Carnage”. The inevitable post-Pandemic inflation – unleashed pent-up demand rummaging around in a fucked-up supply chain has been halved.
He hasn’t done great; he hasn’t failed either.
Laughing about the last one. Even Trump can figure that out. The “Base” no way. Pigs fly first.
Trump is savvy enough to realize that he has to ditch the abortion issue, which is the GOP’s Achilles heel. He has already begun that process. The base won’t desert him over that issue. That love him for too many other reasons, so if Trump comes out as more liberal on abortion, what are they going to do – vote for Biden? Stay home and risk a Biden victory? I doubt it.
With the base secure, his strategy should be to show independents that he is a reasonable man. I wonder if he’s smart enough to overcome his personal bitterness and ditch the rigged election issue, which is his personal Achilles heel. His path to the White House is clear: claim that immigration is out of control, talk about food prices and gas prices, talk about Joe Biden being old and losing it. Those issues resonate with independents.
“And forget about everything I did and said the first time.”
LOL. That too.
Richard Nixon once explained that GOP candidates must run to the right to get the nomination, then tack back to the center to win the general election. Trump is so far ahead in the polls he has decided to tack to the center now. That may turn out to have been the smart thing for him to do, but as a lifelong Republican who desperately wants anyone other than Trump to be the nominee, I am hoping that the Christian Right decides to support a more reliably pro-life candidate.
The Republican party, if it can even be called that anymore, has shifted so far rightward that they have to use the Hubble to even see the center.
I am not sure that it’s accurate to say that the GOP has moved far to the right, though that would probably depend on how you defined Right and Left. The GOP hasn’t really become more conservative, it’s become much more populist. That is the problem with the GOP today. For what it’s worth, the reason the GOP has had such a hard time governing lately is that the House majority is only 4 votes. That means a relatively small number of firebrands have realized that holding out for more than the GOP could ever hope to get controlling only one house of Congress will get them more exposure, Cable News hits, and most importantly small-dollar donations. Matt Gaetz doesn’t really care about the fortunes of the GOP (or the country) writ large. He is acting in his own personal best interest. May he rot in Hell right next to Trump.
The GOP is no longer a conservative party, unless you want to twist the meaning of conservative out of all recognition. They are a radical right party. The nomination of Trump, and the continuing deep support for him makes that utterly clear.
If you want a conservative party in this country, you had better get out and start one. I don’t see much point to it, because the center/right part of the Democrats does that perfectly well.
The whole reason the GOP went radical right was that a principled conservative platform didn’t get them enough votes to win many races because it mostly favored the wealthy So they had to recruit the racists, the homophobes, the abortion-obsessed, the gun nuts, and the conspiracy theorists. (Oh, and the people who believed every word they heard from Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, and so on.) In Presidential races, they nominated guys like Romney, who ignored that crowd and lost. Then Trump came in and played right to them, and rest is recent history. IMO, anyway.
Which is a very long winded way of saying I agree with Bill DeeCee.
To Michael: Conservative only goes so far to the right before it morphs into reactionary. To me MAGA is reactionary, actually fabulist reactionary, in that they want to take the country back to a past which has never remotely existed. And MAGA would seem to account for as much of 70% of self-identified Republicans.
Ah…the moron chimes in…
“He’s not only guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, but beyond any possible doubt.”
“…he is guilty of everything he is accused of.”
Maybe this is what the country is sick of, maybe we want to go back to being innocent until PROVEN guilty. Maybe we’re sick of media outlets being judge, jury, and executioner. Just a thought.
There’s no doubt at all in the documents case. Review it for yourself. See what he is accused of, then review the evidence and see if he did it. It’s absolutely open and shut. There’s not even any case for the defense to argue. They have to hope for the “one juror” result, since conviction must be unanimous. Think about it yourself. What could the defense possibly say? Everything he did is on tape, on video camera, in photographs, in front of eyewitnesses, and even in his own words. Review the case yourself. What’s your defense?
As I said, the other cases are more complicated. Look at the context of what I wrote. I didn’t say he is guilty. I said the vast weight of evidence shows that he’s guilty of what he is accused of. The fact that he did all those things, however, doesn’t automatically merit a “guilty” verdict in court, because there are so many other things to consider. While he did indeed do everything he is accused of (in broad daylight, and obvious to everyone), that doesn’t mean he is LEGALLY guilty in a court of law. Those Federal charges often hinge on criminal intent, and I’m not convinced that the prosecution can prove criminal intent beyond a reasonable doubt. The verdict must be unanimous in Federal court, and I think the defense can probably sow the seeds of legitimate doubt in one or more jurors.
And the Georgia case has all sorts of other issues unrelated to whether he did it. (1) It’s still not clear who has jurisdiction, and that may get appealed all the way to the Supremes. (2) It’s a vastly complicated case, and in fact may just be too complicated for all of the jurors to find beyond a reasonable doubt that there was a conspiracy, as defined by the law. (3) The complexity makes it time-consuming. I’m not even sure they can impanel a jury for that case before the election, let alone complete a trial. (4) Given all the issues to resolve before trial, the defendants may be able to run out the clock, especially if Trump gets elected. I’ve said before that I don’t believe that either Trump or Giuliani will live to hear that verdict read, whether it is “guilty” or “not guilty.”
As for the Stormy Daniels case, it’s boring and I don’t really care. I know that Cohen went to jail for the previous federal version of the case, and I know that he acted at Trump’s behest. (Obviously, since Cohen had nothing to gain, Trump everything. Cohen was just being a good soldier) All those things seem bad, but so much of the case is just accounting and paper-shuffling. The jury has to look at issues like how Trump paid Cohen back for the hush money and called the payments “legal fees,” which they were not. Yawn. The jury will be lucky to stay awake for this one.
Who knows, but they have the right to say something. That’s America. My comment is not in support of the guy, BTW, but sorry Scoop, you just proved my point.
You don’t have to trust me or the media. As I said, look at the documents case yourself and see if you can find any possible way he could be “not guilty.” You can see the charges, and you can see what he did.
I’ve tried to figure what I would do if I were defending Trump in that case. Frankly, I have no idea what the defense will do or can do if the case goes to trial. I think they will have to throw in all sorts of non-legal, non-factual arguments within earshot of the jury. (“It’s not fair. Biden did the same thing.”) The judge will tell the jury to disregard those points, and strike things from the record, but saying that is one thing, and making people disregard what they have heard is quite another. All the defense needs is one juror on their side to avoid a guilty verdict, and the odds are pretty good that they can do that.
“If I’m guilty I want to be tried in the US, if I’m innocent I want to be tried in Europe.” Stanford Criminal Law Prof.
The US judicial system qualifies as a farce.
I am not even sure if what Trump is charged with in the Stormy Daniels case is even a crime. He is accused of falsifying business records for his family trust. Is a family trust a business? If so, there is the problem of the 2-year statute of limitations that ran out years ago. To get around that they need to prove he falsified the record to conceal a different crime. They will argue that he falsified a record to conceal a campaign finance reporting crime. That is a federal crime for which the U.S. Attorney never charged him. Probably, because, thanks to John Edwards, we know that you can’t use campaign funds to pay off your mistress, so how could using his own money be a campaign finance crime? But Alvin Bragg was rightfully worried that with high crime rates in NYC right now, voters might not want to reelect a DA who told his prosecutors to charge armed robberies as misdemeanors.
But the other 3 prosecutions have more merit, the documents case being the strongest (as Scoop said). In those cases, I think it will all depend on Voir Dire. Who will be on Trump’s jury? Even in Manhattan, there is a decent chance he could end up with at least 1 Trump voter on his jury. I believe he got about 10% of the vote in Manhattan and 1 juror is 8% of a jury. Atlanta probably has more Republicans than Manhattan. It will be even easier for Trump to get Trump supporters on the GA jury if he can get the case removed to federal court because the Northern District of Georgia draws a jury pool from a larger area than Fulton County.
The documents trial will take place in Florida. While that seems like it should be a slam dunk based on the evidence, there are a lot of angry retired Trump lovers in Florida. I’d say it would be all but impossible to keep them all off the jury except for one thing. The most rabid of the Trump lovers may have said things on social media that will get them struck for cause during Voir Dire. That may be what keeps them off the Manhattan, Fulton County, and DC juries as well. Even if a juror voted for Trump, I hope that after being forced to sit there and listen to the evidence, they may decide to convict.
I had an experience at a hardware store a couple of weeks ago. A guy was saying he thought Trump was going to win. He saw the look on my face and said, “What you don’t like Trump?” I told him he lost and tried to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. I started to tell him that Trump’s lawyers didn’t present any evidence of fraud, even in front of Trump-appointed judges and he walked away and as I followed he literally started running. Willful blindness (or in this case deafness) indeed.
With several different trials it gets weird in regard to intent. Eastman has said in open interview, (shortened here) “Yes we did it, and we were entitled to do it to stop the (as he put it) Modern Left”. How does stuff like that spillover into the other trials and does it?
The documents case he’s burned himself beyond retrieval. And all he had to do was listen to his lawyers and send the stuff back, maybe with a dog ate my homework excuse, and that would have been the end of it.
Two others, it sounds like Smith and Willis have their stuff lined up. The panicked screams of the likes of Jordan and the Orange Buffoon himself attest to it. Disgrace to My Buckeye State Jordan always cracks me up with his two stock expressions: belligerent stupidity and vacuous stupidity.
Bragg: No way, novelty concepts pushed by a hustler.
One ongoing thing here will be the defendants’ tendency to blithely incriminate themselves before the trials. You could have picked me up off the floor when I read the Eastman stuff. And Trump’s complete inability to tell the truth will obviously be a factor in his trials.
Popularity is fickle and doesn’t not equal electoral performance, especially in this era of hyper partisanship. A lot of Democrats are will tell a poster they aren’t satisfied and still happily vote for Biden. Many voters think a president should be a messiah not just the most qualified person for the job available
… You know… Morons.
All tangible results would suggest Republicans whole strategy is backfiring. Basically every election the past year or so Democrats have overperformed, even in areas were Trump won by a comfortable margin.
24 out of 30 special elections Democrats have overperformed.
Major Criminal? Any evidence of his crimes other than politically motivated accusations created by democrats? Men are fed up with the new world order created by liberals, where men are accused of all the evils of this world and women are considered the only wise and superior to men. This cancer destroyed everything. Media, social media, entertainment, sport. The neoliberal, neocommunist revolution is dying.
In at least one of his cases, the documents case, he has no possible legal defense. He clearly did everything he has been indicted for, based on eyewitnesses, taped recordings, video tapes, and even his own words! He’s not only guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, but beyond any possible doubt.
His only hope of exoneration in that case is to get one juror dumb enough or corrupt enough to be swayed by whatever extra-legal arguments the defense will try to get in the jurors’ ears before the judge can shut them off and ask the jury to disregard.
The other cases are more complicated, but the vast weight of evidence shows that he is guilty of everything he is accused of. This is not a case of Democrats fabricating charges. He really did all those things!
And you can argue, if you must, about whether Jan 6 was a coup. (It was, though it was just as poorly planned and slipshod as everything Trump does. But argue away…) But whatever else, he clearly broke his oath of office to protect and defend the Constitution. Now, that isn’t explicitly a crime, but some people – though ironically enough, not the “Oath Keepers” – are going to look askance at that. We can only hope they will keep this in mind while voting.
Red Lion returns maybe?
Name 5 evil acts in the world caused by women.
And I’ll counter with 5000 caused by men. Most men aren’t evil but they do seem to cause most of the world’s problems.
Wow, insecure much?
Why would Biden be doing worse now then he did in 2020?
In our neck of the woods:
1. The cost of the weekly groceries and gas.
2. Ukraine fatigue.
3. Scary stories about immigration.
My girlfriend is concerned with all three. She’s afraid to tell me that she’ll vote for Trump, but I’m definitely getting that vibe. She would vote for any other Republican, and would vote for Bernie Sanders against Trump, but in a Trump-Biden election, I feel she will cave in and vote Trump, even knowing all that she knows about him.
I’m with Churchill in this regard: if Trump should run against Satan, I would at least write some nice words about the Father of Lies.
And maybe even some nice things about Satan.
(Rim-shot)
1. MBS and Putin.
2. Putin.
3. Without illegal labour the cost of American food would skyrocket.
None of these a Biden problems. Trump would exacerbate all 3.
Reality doesn’t matter, only perception. Every point you made is valid (I think Trump would make all worse), but nobody seems to understand the significance of that. The Dems need to step up their marketing, for sure. Right now it’s the cost of food and gas, the border, all that money to Ukraine, blah blah blah.
Wow. I guess I live in an echo chamber. I wrote off the Republicans as a party worth voting for back around the Clinton impeachment. I guess I don’t read things that would help me understand why intelligent people would vote for them, at least unless they believed a lot of false things. Which kind of reduces the intelligence thing.
That’s even thought I used to be a Republican, or at least a conservative, all thru the 1970’s and 80’s. That was made easier by the fact that nobody cared about my opinion on politics. Now that I think of it, they still don’t. Oh, well. Anyway, thanks for explaining things to me, UncleScoopy.
Immigration is a big problem in Wisconsin? Who knew?
Ukraine fatigue? How many Americans have died in the Ukraine/Russia war?
Yes, inflation is higher, but so are wages.
>
Protasiewicz winning the her race for WI state Supreme Court 55/44 is a good leading indicator for Dems ie her race was mainly about a woman’s right to choose and the abortion issue will be front and center in 2024. Indeed, Dems had no problem w/GOTV in a WI special election. 😮
But thanx for sharing your gf’s anecdote …
As I noted previously, immigration does not affect us (that I know of), but my girlfriend watches two news programs every night: ABC with David Muir and BBC. These are obviously not bastions of right-wing nutbaggery, but just about every night she is bombarded with images of long queues in and around the Rio Grande, and statistics which include massive and frightening numbers like Biden’s temporary work permits to a half-million Venezuelans. The total inundation of this imagery has made this her number one issue! Some of our friends, including half-hearted Biden supporters, are trending the same way, constantly blaming Biden for their grocery bills and the USA being swamped with immigrants.
The inflation issue is not a matter of reality, but perception. Biden’s successes are not getting through to the masses.
Ukraine fatigue is absolutely taking hold among fiscal conservatives. Every week I have to listen to how much we are giving them, and the conservatives always end that with “out of my pocket.” Forty-one percent of Americans now say the United States is doing too much to support Ukraine, up from 33% in February and 14% in April 2022. I’m pretty sure you will continue to see a steady increase in the number of Americans who think we are doing too much to support Ukraine.
But the Wisconsinites that I know today are not rejecting principles. They are specifically rejecting Biden. While his job performance is not bad, his salesmanship is. He’s just not getting his story across, even to those who supported him as the anti-Trump in 2020.,
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In 2020, Wisconsin did not reject the Republican party. They specifically rejected Trump. Although Trump lost the state by some 20,000 votes, the Republican candidates for the House outpolled the Democrats by 95,000. The Republican House candidates pulled 1.66 million votes, but Trump pulled only 1.61 million. Biden won with 1.63, so the Republican anti-Trump vote was critical.
The Protasiewicz victory, on the other hand, is a welcome sign, especially about how Wisconsinites feel about abortion and gerrymandering. I think those can be winning positions here in a wider election as well.
Key phrase ~ “they rejected Trump.” And re: fatigue ~ Trump fatigue! Is Biden too old? Yes. Will 2020 Biden voters still vote for Biden over Trump? Probably. It’s a binary choice or stay home or throw your vote away to a third party.
At it’s core potus politics is really quite basic. One party fucks up and the other party is elected. Or one party poses an existential threat to democracy and is rejected by a plurality or majority.
Indeed, Republicans have been thanking their lucky stars the past 30+ yrs for the electoral college. Having said this Trump should have easily lost in 2016 as only HRC could pull defeat from the jaws of victory.
Yea, there was a reason she lost to Barack Hussein Obama in 2008 ie she was a god awful candidate and nothing changed in (8) yrs. Part of Trump’s yahoo/redneck appeal is that he saved “America” from another (4) yrs of the Clinton’s. 😉
Digressing
The major concern I have is that virtually no 2020 Trump supporters (2%) are switching, despite the revelation of all his misdeeds. They either believe that the charges are pure politics, or they just don’t care that he did all that shit, because he is their lord and savior. On the other side of the ledger, if Biden really loses 7% of his 2020 supporters to Trump or some third party schnook, the result could be calamitous.
If you take Biden’s 2020 popular vote, minus 7%, plus 2% of Trump’s …
and compare it to Trump’s 2020 popular vote, minus 2%, plus 7% of Biden’s …
you end up a virtual dead heat, which is exactly what the vast majority of polls are saying now.
Of course, as we all know, the national popular vote is essentially meaningless. There are only a few states that matter.
Now there’s an example of American exceptionalism. There are not many countries where the guy with less votes wins.
US elections are in part determined by who shows up. US Election turn outs aren’t that great usually. Trump certainly has his supporters. They’re not likely to switch but I wouldn’t rely on them to show up.
This applies equally to the Dems. Its part of the reason Hilary lost. Its not that a bunch of Dems flip-flopped. They just didn’t care to show up because they either didn’t like her or they thought it would be an easy win for her. Obama lost a tonne of votes between 2008 and 2012. I wouldn’t presume they switched to Romney. Who can tell when 40-45% of the people can’t be bothered to vote?
How many Americans can even find Ukraine on a world map?
I hear there’s a sale on tinfoil hats at Macy’s. Get yours while supplies last.
Good luck finding actual, literal tinfoil. That worthless aluminum crap doesn’t block anything.