COVID-19 Update

Coronavirus info and quantification:

UPDATED 7/23: Friday’s numbers

New cases, world per capita.

The number of new cases reported across the world on Friday was 574k, about 2% higher than the same day last week.

26 major countries (population five million or more) were in the red zone (143 cases per million population per day). For the second consecutive day, Cuba topped the world at 688 per million.

Fatalities, world per capita

Across the globe, 8,646 fatalities were reported on Friday. That is about even with the same day last week.

16 major countries were in the red zone (3 per million per day). The highest was South Africa (7.5).

11 major countries were in the red zone in both categories (cases and fatalities). They are ordered below based on the number of consecutive days they have appeared on the list: Colombia, Russia, Cuba, Argentina, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Malaysia, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Indonesia and Libya.

Vaccinations, world.

Eight major countries have managed to vaccinate at least 50% of the population fully, with the UAE leading the world.

UAE 69%
Chile 62
Israel 58
Hungary 55
U.K. 55
Canada 54
Spain 53
Belgium 50

Four major countries have administered at least one dose to at least 70% of their population:

UAE 79%
Singapore 73
Chile 71
Canada 71

Testing rates, USA

The current 7-day testing percentage is 5.1%. The last date reported: July 23rd, 3.6% on 1.5 million tests.

15 states were in the CDC red zone (10% positivity) on the latest 7-day average, published Saturday. (The plus and minus signs indicate the direction since the previous report. Multiple signs indicate the number of consecutive reports in which the state has moved in that direction.)

Alabama 41% +
Mississippi 37% + + + +
Kansas 31% + +
Oklahoma 31% +
Idaho 22% +
Arkansas 19%
Missouri 19%
Iowa 17%
Louisiana 15%
Utah 13%
Georgia 14% + + +
Nevada 12%
Tennessee 12%
Kentucky 11%
Texas 10% +

Vaccination rates, USA.

  • 49% of the population in the USA has been fully vaccinated as of Friday (60% of adults). Vermont was the highest, with 67% fully vaccinated, while Alabama and Mississippi were the lowest at 34%.
  • 56% of Americans have received at least one dose (69% of adults, 89% of seniors). Vermont reports that it has given at least one dose to 75% of its residents, making it the most successful state by that criterion.

As of July 23rd, the date of the latest CDC report available, 89% of people 65 years or older had received at least one dose of vaccine, and 80% were fully vaccinated.

New cases, USA

There were about 67K new cases reported in the USA on Friday, about 63% higher than the same day last week. That is the highest single day since April 23, and the highest of any country in the world. 23 states reported data in the red zone. Louisiana topped the nation at 673. The others were Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Florida, Nevada, Wyoming, Kentucky, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Hawaii, Washington, Alaska, Kansas, Alabama, Idaho and Oregon.

The hospitalization numbers run some days behind real time. On Tuesday, July 20th, the total number of Americans hospitalized with COVID was about 37% higher than it had been seven days earlier. As of July 14th, hospital ICU units were at 68%.

The following table represents the USA’s daily “new cases” total in thousands. Red backgrounds indicate an increase versus the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks
4 Weeks
3 Weeks
2 Weeks
Last Week This Week
Monday 10 9 11 4 20 33
Tuesday 13 11 11 12 29 46
Wednesday 14 13 14 19 35 58
Thursday 11 13 17 24 37 64
Friday 13 16 18 27 41 68
Saturday 8 7 8 14 40
Sunday 4 6 4 21 33
AVERAGE 10 11 12 17 34

Fatalities, USA.

Friday’s new fatality count was 428, compared to 293 on the same day last week (up 46%). Three states reported numbers in the fatality red zone (3 fatalities per million population per day). Florida topped the list at 7. The others were Nevada and Kansas.

Several states were in the double (or triple) red zone, which requires making the red zone in two (or all three) of the following: fatalities, new cases and testing percentage.

  • Double: Missouri, Oklahoma, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Idaho, Alabama and Mississippi.
  • Triple: Nevada, Kansas and Florida (2 out of 2 for Florida, testing presumed based on new cases.)

The table below shows the USA’s daily COVID fatalities. Red backgrounds indicate an increase over the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks
4 Weeks
3 Weeks
2 Weeks
Last Week This Week
Monday 205 213 137 23 171 140
Tuesday 353 352 294 202 307 271
Wednesday 434 326 249 267 374 413
Thursday 291 329 315 341 344 393
Friday 393 387 322 366 293 332
Saturday 170 150 96 118 185
Sunday 86 105 38 107 108
AVERAGE 276 266 207 203 254

ADDED 7/23: Variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 are now responsible for all cases in the United States. The original strain is no longer detected among variants circulating throughout the country.”

ADDED 7/12: 97% of all Covid-19 hospitalizations in the United States, and 99% of deaths are now occurring among unvaccinated individuals.

ADDED 7/11: Delta spreads 225% faster than original virus

ADDED 6/14: Coronavirus infections are dropping where people are vaccinated, rising where they are not

ADDED 5/31: COVID-19 cases and deaths are way down from the December-February peak, but the rate of infection is the same as it was in December for the unvaccinated.

ADDED 4/7: How could the world’s most vaccinated country be seeing an unprecedented spike in coronavirus cases? “The Seychelles situation is being watched all over the world for what it says about the effectiveness of vaccines. It is providing a critical case to consider the effectiveness of some vaccines and what range we have to reach to meet herd immunity.”

ADDED 3/25: India reports novel COVID-19 variant, daily deaths at year’s high. “New ‘double mutant variant’ detected, says health ministry amid concerns over highest single-day tally of new infections and deaths.”

ADDED 3/20: Europe has fallen far behind the USA and UK in vaccinations. Where did they go wrong? This is something President Trump’s administration got right. “The bloc shopped for vaccines like a customer. The United States basically went into business with the drugmakers, spending much more heavily to accelerate vaccine development, testing and production.”

ADDED 1/27: The new strain in Brazil is not only more transmissible than the original strain, but it is also more severe. Worse still, people who have had the first strain don’t seem to be immune to the new one!

Soon after the holidays, deaths and hospitalizations exploded. The hospital system buckled. The number of confirmed coronavirus deaths at home rose from a total of 35 from May through December to 178 so far this month, according to city health officials. That stunned Brazilian researchers who last month published a paper in Science proclaiming that 76 percent of Manaus’s population had already been infected with the virus.

“How can you have 76 percent of people infected and, at the same time, have an epidemic that’s bigger than the first?” asked author Ester Sabino. “This was a concern from the moment cases started to rise.”

As viruses course through a population, they inevitably mutate, although most such genetic changes are functionally insignificant. The coronavirus has spawned countless variants around the world. But P.1 — along with variants found in South Africa and Britain — is provoking particular concern. Not only does it have a spike protein mutation that could lead to a higher infection rate, it possesses what’s called an “escape mutation.” Also found in the South Africa variant, the mutation, known as E484k, could help it evade coronavirus antibodies.

ADDED 12/11: FDA authorizes the first coronavirus vaccine

ADDED 11/15: Doctors Are Calling It Quits Under Stress of the Pandemic. Another horrible irony of the pandemic – as we need more doctors, we have fewer. “About 8 percent of the doctors reported closing their offices in recent months, which the foundation estimated could equal some 16,000 practices. Another 4 percent said they planned to shutter within the next year.”

ADDED 10/19: China becomes the first major economy to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

ADDED 10/14: Proposal to let coronavirus spread naturally through US population interests White House and alarms medical establishment.” The math surrounding that strategy is terrifying. Scientists say that herd immunity requires about 2/3 of the population to have the antibodies. That’s 220 million people. In the USA in recent months, about 1.4% of the people who get the virus do not survive it. In other words, achieving herd immunity without a vaccine will require about three million Americans to die … and that’s IF IT WORKS!

ADDED 10/8: Infections fell 75% after mask mandates and bar closures in Arizona, study shows

ADDED 9/24: What’s Behind Mainland Southeast Asia’s Surprising Success Against COVID-19?

ADDED 7/15: President Trump says the U.S. would have half the number of coronavirus cases if it did half the testing.

UPDATED 6/19: This can’t be good: “The antibodies our bodies develop against COVID-19 can fade away in just two to three months.”

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country.

March 9:

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 25:

Feb 24:

The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”