COVID-19 Update

Coronavirus info and quantification:

UPDATED 5/10: Monday’s numbers

New cases, world per capita.

The number of new cases reported across the world on Monday was 611k, about 9% fewer than the same day last week. The non-India portion of the world declined by 12%.

18 major countries (population five million or more) were still in the red zone (143 cases per million population per day). Switzerland topped the world at 423.

Fatalities, world per capita

Across the globe, 10,560 fatalities were reported on Monday. That is about even (down 1%) with the same day last week. India reported a 13% increase, while the rest of the world declined by 9%.

24 major countries were in the red zone (3 per million per day). The highest were:

Bulgaria 17
Paraguay 11
Argentina 11
Colombia 10

Only 12 major countries remained in the red zone in both categories (cases and fatalities). They are ordered below based on the number of consecutive days they have appeared on the list: Colombia, Iran, Argentina, Turkey, Paraguay, Chile, Nepal, Costa Rica, Belgium, Greece, Bulgaria and Oman.

Vaccinations, world.

Eight major countries have managed to fully vaccinate at least 20% of the population, with Israel far ahead of the rest of the world, and the USA far ahead of the rest of the developed economies.

Israel 56
Chile 37
U.S. 35
UK 27
Hungary 26
Qatar 26
Serbia 23
Uruguay 23

No other major country is above 15.

Both Israel and the UK have administered at least one dose to at least half of their population. The USA is in third place at 46%.

Testing rates, USA

The current 7-day testing percentage held steady at 3.3%, the lowest it has ever been. Sunday, May 9, is the most recent day reported, and the positive testing percentage that day was 2.6% on about 875k tests.

Only five states were in the CDC red zone (10% positivity) on Monday. (The plus and minus signs indicate the direction since the previous report. Multiple signs indicate the number of consecutive reports in which the state has moved in that direction)

Idaho 16 –
Iowa 15 –
Kansas 13 –
Alabama 11
Mississippi 10

Vaccination rates, USA.

  • 35% of the population in the USA has been fully vaccinated as of Monday. Maine and Connecticut were the highest at 45% fully vaccinated, while Mississippi was the lowest at 25%.
  • 46% of Americans have received at least one dose. Vermont has given at least one dose to 62% of their residents, the most successful state by that criterion.
  • The USA ranks third in the world on both criteria.

As of May 7, the date of the latest CDC report available, 83% of people 65 years or older had received at least one dose of vaccine, and 70% were fully vaccinated.

New cases, USA

There were about 30K new cases reported in the USA on Monday, a 25% decline from the same day last week. 9 states and Puerto Rico are still in the red zone (143 per million population per day). Wyoming was the highest at 244.

The hospitalization numbers run some days behind real time. On Friday, May 7, the total number of Americans hospitalized with COVID was about 6,200 lower (18%) than it had been seven days earlier.

The following table represents the USA’s daily “new cases” total in thousands. Red backgrounds indicate an increase versus the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks Ago 4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago 2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Monday 50 57 52 47 40 30
Tuesday 62 78 60 52 42
Wednesday 75 78 65 52 46
Thursday 80 74 67 59 48
Friday 85 82 67 60 49
Saturday 67 64 53 42 36
Sunday 48 43 35 31 22
AVERAGE 67 68 57 49 40

Fatalities, USA.

Monday’s new fatality count was 370, compared to 445 on the same day last week (down 17%). Only 4 states were still in the red zone (3 fatalities per million population per day). Delaware and Connecticut were the highest at 5.

The University of Washington computer model currently projects 949,000 deaths from the coronavirus before September 1, compared to a current 905,000 by their methodology, which now includes 331,000 unreported deaths.

No states were in Monday’s triple red zone (fatalities, new cases and testing percentage). Only two states were even in the double red zone (new cases and fatalities, but not testing percentage): Michigan and Connecticut.

The table below shows the USA’s daily COVID fatalities. Red backgrounds indicate an increase over the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks Ago 4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago 2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Monday 415 460 488 466 445 370
Tuesday 906 819 888 885 853
Wednesday 873 915 876 954 743
Thursday 1,009 935 896 870 860
Friday 929 887 790 784 777
Saturday 740 760 742 661 648
Sunday 276 310 273 312 241
AVERAGE 735 727 707 704 652

ADDED 4/7: How could the world’s most vaccinated country be seeing an unprecedented spike in coronavirus cases? “The Seychelles situation is being watched all over the world for what it says about the effectiveness of vaccines. It is providing a critical case to consider the effectiveness of some vaccines and what range we have to reach to meet herd immunity.”

ADDED 3/25: India reports novel COVID-19 variant, daily deaths at year’s high. “New ‘double mutant variant’ detected, says health ministry amid concerns over highest single-day tally of new infections and deaths.”

ADDED 3/20: Europe has fallen far behind the USA and UK in vaccinations. Where did they go wrong? This is something President Trump’s administration got right. “The bloc shopped for vaccines like a customer. The United States basically went into business with the drugmakers, spending much more heavily to accelerate vaccine development, testing and production.”

ADDED 1/27: The new strain in Brazil is not only more transmissible than the original strain, but it is also more severe. Worse still, people who have had the first strain don’t seem to be immune to the new one!

Soon after the holidays, deaths and hospitalizations exploded. The hospital system buckled. The number of confirmed coronavirus deaths at home rose from a total of 35 from May through December to 178 so far this month, according to city health officials. That stunned Brazilian researchers who last month published a paper in Science proclaiming that 76 percent of Manaus’s population had already been infected with the virus.

“How can you have 76 percent of people infected and, at the same time, have an epidemic that’s bigger than the first?” asked author Ester Sabino. “This was a concern from the moment cases started to rise.”

As viruses course through a population, they inevitably mutate, although most such genetic changes are functionally insignificant. The coronavirus has spawned countless variants around the world. But P.1 — along with variants found in South Africa and Britain — is provoking particular concern. Not only does it have a spike protein mutation that could lead to a higher infection rate, it possesses what’s called an “escape mutation.” Also found in the South Africa variant, the mutation, known as E484k, could help it evade coronavirus antibodies.

ADDED 12/11: FDA authorizes the first coronavirus vaccine

ADDED 11/15: Doctors Are Calling It Quits Under Stress of the Pandemic. Another horrible irony of the pandemic – as we need more doctors, we have fewer. “About 8 percent of the doctors reported closing their offices in recent months, which the foundation estimated could equal some 16,000 practices. Another 4 percent said they planned to shutter within the next year.”

ADDED 10/19: China becomes the first major economy to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

ADDED 10/14: Proposal to let coronavirus spread naturally through US population interests White House and alarms medical establishment.” The math surrounding that strategy is terrifying. Scientists say that herd immunity requires about 2/3 of the population to have the antibodies. That’s 220 million people. In the USA in recent months, about 1.4% of the people who get the virus do not survive it. In other words, achieving herd immunity without a vaccine will require about three million Americans to die … and that’s IF IT WORKS!

ADDED 10/8: Infections fell 75% after mask mandates and bar closures in Arizona, study shows

ADDED 9/24: What’s Behind Mainland Southeast Asia’s Surprising Success Against COVID-19?

ADDED 7/15: President Trump says the U.S. would have half the number of coronavirus cases if it did half the testing.

UPDATED 6/19: This can’t be good: “The antibodies our bodies develop against COVID-19 can fade away in just two to three months.”

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country.

March 9:

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 25:

Feb 24:

The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”