COVID-19 Update

Coronavirus info and quantification:

UPDATED 9/23: Thursday’s numbers.

New cases, world per capita.

The number of new cases reported across the world on Thursday was 513k, about 13% less than the same day last week.

26 major countries (population five million or more) were in the red zone (143 cases per million population per day). Serbia topped the world with 745 cases per million.

Fatalities, world per capita

Across the globe, 8,619 fatalities were reported on Thursday. That total is about 11% lower than the same day last week.

15 major countries were in the red zone (3 per million per day). Bulgaria (15) was the highest, and the only one higher than 8.

11 major countries were in the red zone in both categories (cases and fatalities). They are ordered below based on the number of consecutive days they have appeared on the list: Cuba, Iran, Malaysia, Costa Rica, The USA, Romania, Serbia, Guatemala, Bulgaria, Russia and Greece.

Vaccinations, world.

Four major countries have managed to vaccinate more thant 75% of the population fully as of Wednesday, with Portugal and the UAE leading the world.

Portugal 84%
UAE 83
Singapore 80
Spain 77

The same countries have administered at least one dose to at least 80% of their population:

UAE 94%
Portugal 87
Singapore 82
Spain 80

Testing rates, USA

The current 7-day testing percentage is 8.1% (red zone = 10.0%). The last date reported was September 22nd, when 8.8% of the 1.5 million tests came back positive.

Although the country’s average is no longer in the red zone, more than half (26) of the states were in the CDC red zone (10% positivity) on the latest 7-day average, published on the 23rd. (Or on their most recent reports.)

(The plus and minus signs indicate the direction since the previous report. Multiple signs indicate the number of consecutive reports in which the state has moved in that direction.)

Idaho 43% + +
Kansas 29%
Tennessee 21% –
Oklahoma 18% + (f)
Kentucky 17%
Alabama 17% – – (f)
Washington 17% + (f2)
Wyoming 16%
Georgia 16%
Mississippi 16% – (f)
Ohio 16%
Utah 15%
Virginia 14%
North Dakota 14%
New Jersey 13% – – – –
Texas 13% – – –
Arkansas 13% –
South Dakota 13% – – (f)
Missouri 12%
Montana 12% +
Florida 11% – (f)
South Carolina 11% +
Wisconsin 10% –
North Carolina 10%
West Virginia 10%
Pennsylvania 10%

Footnote: Florida, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa, Mississippi and South Dakota are not tabulated accurately on the ranking chart. Florida reported 11%. South Dakota reported 13%. Oklahoma reported 18%. Alabama reported 17%. Mississippi reported 16%. Iowa’s health department reports 9.1%.

Footnote 2: Washington’s current numbers are gibberish. I used the last day that seems sensible.

Vaccination rates, USA.

  • 55% of the population in the USA has been fully vaccinated as of Thursday (66% of adults, 83% of seniors). Vermont is the highest, with 69% fully vaccinated, while West Virginia is the lowest at 40%.
  • 64% of Americans have received at least one dose (77% of adults, 93% of seniors). Vermont reports that it has given at least one dose to 77% of its residents, making it the most successful state by that criterion. Idaho trails the pack at 46%.

New cases, USA

47 states, plus DC and PR, filed reports on Thursday, detailing 127,000 new cases. All 47 of those states, plus DC, were in the red zone. The red zone is 143 cases per million population per day. Alaska topped the nation at 1740. That is its third consecutive day at the top of the list, and that state’s governor has now placed the hospital system in crisis mode, joining Idaho in that category. Six other states topped every country in the world: Montana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Wyoming, Idaho and North Dakota.

The hospitalization numbers run some days behind real time. On September 19th, the total number of Americans hospitalized with COVID (80,700+) was about 9% lower than it had been seven days earlier. The NY Times reports that the 14-day trend is down 10%. As of September 16th, hospital ICU units were at 81% capacity, up from 80% seven days earlier.

The following table represents the USA’s daily “new cases” total in thousands. Red backgrounds indicate an increase versus the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week. An asterisk indicates that the data are incomplete.

5 Weeks Ago 4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago 2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Monday 106 115 120 125 116 92
Tuesday 144 148 156 116 142 121
Wednesday 158 172 184 158 166 134
Thursday 170 181 186 169 158 127
Friday 178 192 187 172 159
Saturday 146 158 150 158 127
Sunday 120 121 130 131 97
AVERAGE 146 155 159 147 137

Fatalities, USA.

According to the NY Times summary, the USA suffered 3,146 COVID fatalities on Thursday. 29 states were in the red zone of 3 fatalities per million population in a single day. The highest was Alabama at 27. Six other states were higher than any country in the world: Idaho, Texas, Montana, Mississippi, Georgia and West Virginia.

Three states (West Virginia, Idaho and Montana) topped every country in the world in BOTH major “per capita” criteria (cases and fatalities).

ADDED 7/29: Europe, after a bungled start, has come from way behind to pass the USA in vaccinations. When I posted the news item below on March 20th, the USA’s vaccination rate was nearly triple that of the European Union. The European Union passed the USA on July 28th, and is still speeding ahead.

ADDED 7/23: Variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 are now responsible for all cases in the United States. The original strain is no longer detected among variants circulating throughout the country.”

ADDED 7/12: 97% of all Covid-19 hospitalizations in the United States, and 99% of deaths are now occurring among unvaccinated individuals.

ADDED 7/11: Delta spreads 225% faster than original virus

ADDED 6/14: Coronavirus infections are dropping where people are vaccinated, rising where they are not

ADDED 5/31: COVID-19 cases and deaths are way down from the December-February peak, but the rate of infection is the same as it was in December for the unvaccinated.

ADDED 4/7: How could the world’s most vaccinated country be seeing an unprecedented spike in coronavirus cases? “The Seychelles situation is being watched all over the world for what it says about the effectiveness of vaccines. It is providing a critical case to consider the effectiveness of some vaccines and what range we have to reach to meet herd immunity.”

ADDED 3/25: India reports novel COVID-19 variant, daily deaths at year’s high. “New ‘double mutant variant’ detected, says health ministry amid concerns over highest single-day tally of new infections and deaths.”

ADDED 3/20: Europe has fallen far behind the USA and UK in vaccinations. Where did they go wrong? This is something President Trump’s administration got right. “The bloc shopped for vaccines like a customer. The United States basically went into business with the drugmakers, spending much more heavily to accelerate vaccine development, testing and production.”

ADDED 1/27: The new strain in Brazil is not only more transmissible than the original strain, but it is also more severe. Worse still, people who have had the first strain don’t seem to be immune to the new one!

Soon after the holidays, deaths and hospitalizations exploded. The hospital system buckled. The number of confirmed coronavirus deaths at home rose from a total of 35 from May through December to 178 so far this month, according to city health officials. That stunned Brazilian researchers who last month published a paper in Science proclaiming that 76 percent of Manaus’s population had already been infected with the virus.

“How can you have 76 percent of people infected and, at the same time, have an epidemic that’s bigger than the first?” asked author Ester Sabino. “This was a concern from the moment cases started to rise.”

As viruses course through a population, they inevitably mutate, although most such genetic changes are functionally insignificant. The coronavirus has spawned countless variants around the world. But P.1 — along with variants found in South Africa and Britain — is provoking particular concern. Not only does it have a spike protein mutation that could lead to a higher infection rate, it possesses what’s called an “escape mutation.” Also found in the South Africa variant, the mutation, known as E484k, could help it evade coronavirus antibodies.

ADDED 12/11: FDA authorizes the first coronavirus vaccine

ADDED 11/15: Doctors Are Calling It Quits Under Stress of the Pandemic. Another horrible irony of the pandemic – as we need more doctors, we have fewer. “About 8 percent of the doctors reported closing their offices in recent months, which the foundation estimated could equal some 16,000 practices. Another 4 percent said they planned to shutter within the next year.”

ADDED 10/19: China becomes the first major economy to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

ADDED 10/14: Proposal to let coronavirus spread naturally through US population interests White House and alarms medical establishment.” The math surrounding that strategy is terrifying. Scientists say that herd immunity requires about 2/3 of the population to have the antibodies. That’s 220 million people. In the USA in recent months, about 1.4% of the people who get the virus do not survive it. In other words, achieving herd immunity without a vaccine will require about three million Americans to die … and that’s IF IT WORKS!

ADDED 10/8: Infections fell 75% after mask mandates and bar closures in Arizona, study shows

ADDED 9/24: What’s Behind Mainland Southeast Asia’s Surprising Success Against COVID-19?

ADDED 7/15: President Trump says the U.S. would have half the number of coronavirus cases if it did half the testing.

UPDATED 6/19: This can’t be good: “The antibodies our bodies develop against COVID-19 can fade away in just two to three months.”

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country.

March 9:

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 25:

Feb 24:

The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”