COVID-19 Update

Coronavirus mapped and quantified:

UPDATED 10/25: Saturday’s numbers

New cases, world per capita.

There were 405K new cases around the world. That’s 18% higher than last Sunday. 20 major countries (population 5 million or more) were in the CDC-defined red zone (one thousand new cases per million inhabitants per week – or 143 cases per million per day). The highest was Belgium at 1526 per million per day. Four other countries were above 500: France (796), Czechia (682), The Netherlands (595) and Slovakia (557).

Fatalities, world per capita.

The global fatality number was 4,495, 10% above last Sunday. Ten countries were in the red zone (3.0 deaths per million inhabitants per day), led by Czechia at 11.6, Belgium 6.8, Argentina at 6.2 and Oman at 5.3.

Eight countries were in the red zone in both categories (new cases and new deaths): Argentina, Oman, Czechia, Romania, Colombia, Hungary, Belgium and Jordan.

Testing rates, USA.

The national testing rate was 6.0% on Sunday. The most current seven-day rolling average rose to 6.1%.

The following states are in the CDC-defined red zone (10%). (Pluses and minuses indicate the upward or downward motion of the rate. Multiple signs indicate the number of consecutive days in that direction.) These are Saturday’s numbers. The state-ranking database is not updated on Sunday.

South Dakota 39 +
Idaho 34 + + + +
Wyoming 28 –
Iowa 23 + +
Alabama 22 + +
Kansas 20 –
Nebraska 20 +
Mississippi 17
Utah 17 +
Nevada 15 – – –
Wisconsin 14
Montana 14
Florida 12 –
North Dakota 11
Pennsylvania 11 +
Arkansas 10+

New cases, USA

The number of new infections was 61K, 30% higher than last Sunday. 29 states were in the red zone for new infections (143 cases per million per day), led by South Dakota at 1200 and North Dakota at 1109. Five other states were above 500: Alaska, Montana, Wisconsin, Utah and Tennessee

The following table represents the USA’s daily “new cases” total in thousands. Red backgrounds indicate an increase over the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks Ago 4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago
2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Friday 55 54 52 61 72 81
Saturday 44 43 50 54 56
Sunday 34 34 34 42 47
Monday 37 37 41 46 57
Tuesday 36 44 45 52 62
Wednesday 42 41 49 60 64
Thursday 45 47 57 66 74

AVERAGE 41 43 47 54 62

Fatalities, USA.

Fatalities about the same as last Sunday. There were 8 states in the red zone (3.0 fatalities per million people for the day). The highest were Missouri (15.5), South Dakota (10.2), and North Dakota (10.5)

Nine states were in the triple red zone (new cases, fatalities, testing percentage): North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Idaho, Montana, Florida, Mississippi and Arkansas.

The computer model predicts that 319 thousand Americans will die of COVID-19 by January 1, and the number will rise to 386 thousand by February 1.

The table below shows the USA’s daily COVID fatalities. Red backgrounds indicate no decrease compared to the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate no decrease compared to the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks Ago 4 Weeks Ago
3 Weeks Ago
2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Friday 958 895 868 910 928 903
Saturday 657 737 755 635 638 784
Sunday 294 276 332 325 463 442
Monday 388 355 421 316 442
Tuesday 969 977 790 843 952
Wednesday 1,112 955 932 970 1,225
Thursday 943 920 957 874 973
AVERAGE 760 731 722 696 803

ADDED 10/19: China becomes the first major economy to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

ADDED 10/14: Proposal to let coronavirus spread naturally through US population interests White House and alarms medical establishment.” The math surrounding that strategy is terrifying. Scientists say that herd immunity requires about 2/3 of the population to have the antibodies. That’s 220 million people. In the USA in recent months, about 1.4% of the people who get the virus do not survive it. In other words, achieving herd immunity without a vaccine will require about three million Americans to die … and that’s IF IT WORKS!

ADDED 10/8: The first truly major presumed human-to-animal transmission: Thousands of minks dead in COVID outbreak on Utah farms

ADDED 10/8: Infections fell 75% after mask mandates and bar closures in Arizona, study shows

ADDED 9/25: Auto parts firm develops dependable rapid COVID-19 test. Bosch said its test has a “sensitivity” — the ability to avoid false negatives — of 98 per cent, and a “specificity” — the ability to avoid false positives — of 100 per cent. Bosch claims can deliver a result in just under 40 minutes, and be processed using a portable device.

ADDED 9/24: What’s Behind Mainland Southeast Asia’s Surprising Success Against COVID-19? Laos and Cambodia have recorded NO deaths from coronavirus. Vietnam has 35 deaths in a country of about a hundred million people. Thailand has 59 deaths amid a population of about 70 million.

UPDATED 7/18: Some disquieting trends:

The following graphs tell a clear story of what great work we did in chipping away at the infection rate and the overburdened hospitals when we were sheltering in place, and how we, by our own carelessness, undid all the good we had done.

image host image host image host

The third chart shows the seven-day average, not the actual for each day

The source of the testing and hospitalization data is here.

ADDED 7/15: In a masterpiece of reasoning worthy of Descartes, Trump says the U.S. would have half the number of coronavirus cases if it did half the testing. (Of course it would have the same amount of cases today, and more tomorrow, since the undetected cases would cause spreading. It would have fewer cases reported in the short term, but that’s not much of a goal.) Even more important, fatalities and hospitalizations are also rising again. I suppose his solution to that is to close the hospitals and morgues.

UPDATED 7/8: Any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable.” Spain has found that there is no place in the country, no matter how hard-hit, where herd immunity is within reach. The argument against a “herd immunity” strategy is doubly reinforced by the facts that (1) antibodies may not remain active in the system very long; (2) even if the antibodies retain their potency, it is not known whether they can prevent re-infection. The bad news is that the same arguments also suggest that it can’t yet be determined whether a vaccine will be effective.

Here is more regarding rapidly disappearing antibodies and the herd immunity issue: Memory T-cells for Covid are found after the antibodies have disappeared even in the mild cases. What’s unclear is whether the T-cells prevent someone who is reinfected from spreading the disease. If not, herd immunity is not possible. See here

ADDED 7/8: Turns out karma is real, and it can be a bitch. President Bolsonaro of Brazil Tests Positive for Coronavirus, Gee, I can’t imagine how a thing like this could happen – oh, wait (see below) …

ADDED 7/2: This can’t be good. “The novel coronavirus is showing some signs of mutating in a way that may make it easier for the pathogen to spread

ADDED LATE 7/1: As the number of new cases first passed 50,000 per day, less than a week after it first passed 40,000, the president had this to say:

ADDED 6/26: It’s not a political thing, it’s a health thing. Even uber-conservative Darth Cheney wears a mask, as did his mentor, Darth Vader.

ADDED 6/26:

Or as Oliver Cromwell told his men, “Don’t bother keeping your powder dry. Just trust in God to stop their bullets.”

UPDATED 6/19: This can’t be good: “The antibodies our bodies develop against COVID-19 can fade away in just two to three months.”

ADDED 6/16: Oxford University scientists determined low-cost steroid, dexamethasone, to be the first drug proven to reduce mortality in severe COVID-19 patients, after a 6,000-patient trial. Note that it is only useful in severe cases. No benefit was found in patients who did not need respiratory support.

UPDATED 5/22: An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, had previously suggested that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and a limited band of absolute humidity. The scientists did not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. A newer study from Harvard also shows that summer weather is beneficial, but the study also stresses that weather can’t stop the spread without additional proactive measures from humans.

“Our projections suggest warmer temperature, more humidity, and moderate outdoor UV exposure may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number; however, upcoming changes in weather alone will NOT be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.”

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country.

March 9:

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 25:

Feb 24:

The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”