COVID-19 Update

Coronavirus info and quantification:

UPDATED 4/17: Saturday’s numbers

New cases, world per capita.

The number of new cases reported across the world on Saturday was 782k, about 8% higher than the same day last week.

34 major countries (population five million or more) were in the red zone (143 cases per million population per day), topped by Turkey at 736. Turkey has been the worst country for the past seven days.

Fatalities, world per capita

Across the globe, 11,556 fatalities were reported on Saturday. That is 8% lower than the same day last week.

25 major countries are in the red zone (3 per million per day). Four countries are far higher than the rest.

Hungary 23
Poland 16
Slovakia 13
Brazil 13

No other country is higher than 11. Those four countries have been at 13 or higher for more than a week.

21 major countries remain in the red zone in both categories (cases and fatalities). They are ordered below based on the number of consecutive days they have appeared on the list: Lebanon, Hungary, Brazil, Jordan, Ukraine, Serbia, Colombia, Greece, Peru, Italy, Iran, Bulgaria, Turkey, Poland, Austria, Romania, Tunisia, Chile, Palestine, Belgium, Paraguay and Tunisia.

Vaccinations, world.

Only seven major countries have managed to fully vaccinate at least 10% of the population, with Israel far ahead of the rest of the world, and the USA far ahead of the rest of the developed economies.

Israel 55
Chile 28
U.S. 25
Serbia 17
Hungary 14
UK 14
Morocco 12

Testing and vaccination rates, USA.

The current 7-day testing percentage held constant at 5.2%.

There is no state ranking report on the weekend. Ten states were in the CDC red zone (10% positivity) on Friday. (The plus and minus signs indicate the direction since the previous report. Multiple signs indicate the number of consecutive reports in which the state has moved in that direction)

Idaho 22 –
Iowa 20 –
Michigan 16
Alabama 14 –
Mississippi 13 +
South Dakota 12 –
Kansas 12
Pennsylvania 11 +
New Jersey 11 +
Florida 10

25% of the population in the USA has been fully vaccinated. As of Saturday, Maine, New Mexico and Alaska are the highest at 32% and Georgia and Alabama are the lowest at 19%.

New Hampshire, at 58%, is the only state to have given at least one dose to at least half of its population.

As of April 15, 80% of people 65 years or older have received at least one dose of vaccine and 63.7% are fully vaccinated.

New cases, USA

There were about 64K new cases reported in the USA on Saturday, an 4% decrease from the same day last week. 36 states, PR and DC are still in the red zone (143 per million population per day). Michigan was the highest by far at 608.

Hospitalization data runs some days behind real time. On Wednesday, April 14th, new hospitalizations were about 2% lower than the previous Wednesday, , but the total number of people hospitalized with COVID as of April 14th was about 2% higher than it was seven days earlier.

The following table represents the USA’s daily “new cases” total in thousands. Red backgrounds indicate an increase versus the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks Ago 4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago 2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Monday 45 45 46 60 50 57
Tuesday 56 53 59 62 62 78
Wednesday 60 63 67 69 75 78
Thursday 63 63 67 77 80 74
Friday 67 66 76 70 85 82
Saturday 49 56 68 66 67 64
Sunday 37 39 44 37 48
AVERAGE 54 55 61 63 67

Fatalities, USA

Saturday’s new fatality count was 738. That’s about the same as the same day last week.

23 states and DC are still in the red zone (3 fatalities per million population per day). The worst was Alabama at 10.

The University of Washington computer model now stands at 618,000 deaths from the coronavirus before August 1.

Four states were in Saturday’s triple red zone (fatalities, new cases, testing percentage), based on their most recent reporting: Michigan, New Jersey, Florida and Pennsylvania.

The table below shows the USA’s daily COVID fatalities. Red backgrounds indicate an increase over the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks Ago 4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago 2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Monday 831 785 668 639 415 460
Tuesday 1,704 1,248 936 873 906 819
Wednesday 1,610 1,288 1,405 1,115 873 915
Thursday 1,531 1,705 1,165 952 1,009 895
Friday 1,505 1,268 1,300 1,001 929 887
Saturday 1,037 792 824 807 740 738
Sunday 629 455 510 299 276
AVERAGE 1,264 1,077 968 812 735

ADDED 4/14: FDA asserts the need for a pause on the J&J vaccine in the USA.

ADDED 3/25: India reports novel COVID-19 variant, daily deaths at year’s high. “New ‘double mutant variant’ detected, says health ministry amid concerns over highest single-day tally of new infections and deaths.”

ADDED 3/20: Europe has fallen far behind the USA and UK in vaccinations. Where did they go wrong? This is something President Trump’s administration got right. “The bloc shopped for vaccines like a customer. The United States basically went into business with the drugmakers, spending much more heavily to accelerate vaccine development, testing and production.”

ADDED 1/27: The new strain in Brazil is not only more transmissible than the original strain, but it is also more severe. Worse still, people who have had the first strain don’t seem to be immune to the new one!

Soon after the holidays, deaths and hospitalizations exploded. The hospital system buckled. The number of confirmed coronavirus deaths at home rose from a total of 35 from May through December to 178 so far this month, according to city health officials. That stunned Brazilian researchers who last month published a paper in Science proclaiming that 76 percent of Manaus’s population had already been infected with the virus.

“How can you have 76 percent of people infected and, at the same time, have an epidemic that’s bigger than the first?” asked author Ester Sabino. “This was a concern from the moment cases started to rise.”

As viruses course through a population, they inevitably mutate, although most such genetic changes are functionally insignificant. The coronavirus has spawned countless variants around the world. But P.1 — along with variants found in South Africa and Britain — is provoking particular concern. Not only does it have a spike protein mutation that could lead to a higher infection rate, it possesses what’s called an “escape mutation.” Also found in the South Africa variant, the mutation, known as E484k, could help it evade coronavirus antibodies.

ADDED 12/11: FDA authorizes the first coronavirus vaccine

ADDED 11/15: Doctors Are Calling It Quits Under Stress of the Pandemic. Another horrible irony of the pandemic – as we need more doctors, we have fewer. “About 8 percent of the doctors reported closing their offices in recent months, which the foundation estimated could equal some 16,000 practices. Another 4 percent said they planned to shutter within the next year.”

ADDED 10/19: China becomes the first major economy to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

ADDED 10/14: Proposal to let coronavirus spread naturally through US population interests White House and alarms medical establishment.” The math surrounding that strategy is terrifying. Scientists say that herd immunity requires about 2/3 of the population to have the antibodies. That’s 220 million people. In the USA in recent months, about 1.4% of the people who get the virus do not survive it. In other words, achieving herd immunity without a vaccine will require about three million Americans to die … and that’s IF IT WORKS!

ADDED 10/8: Infections fell 75% after mask mandates and bar closures in Arizona, study shows

ADDED 9/24: What’s Behind Mainland Southeast Asia’s Surprising Success Against COVID-19?

ADDED 7/15: President Trump says the U.S. would have half the number of coronavirus cases if it did half the testing.

UPDATED 6/19: This can’t be good: “The antibodies our bodies develop against COVID-19 can fade away in just two to three months.”

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country.

March 9:

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 25:

Feb 24:

The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”