COVID-19 Update

Coronavirus mapped and quantified:

UPDATED 8/10 Sunday’s numbers:

New cases, world per capita.

There were 219K new cases around the world, down about 2% from last Sunday.

Only three countries are in the CDC red zone (one thousand new cases per million inhabitants per week – or 143 cases per million per day).

Peru 212
Colombia 208
USA 144

Fatalities, world per capita.

The global fatality number was 4,798, a surprisingly high jump of 7% from last week. The following countries are in the red zone – (3.0 deaths per million inhabitants per day).

Peru 6.9
Colombia 5.9
Bolivia 5.4
South Africa 3.3

Only two countries are in the red zone in both categories (new cases and new deaths): Peru and Colombia.

Testing rates, USA.

The country’s testing percentage of positives fell to 7.1%

New cases, USA.

The “new cases” rate fell about 4% from last Sunday. It has now fallen for fifteen consecutive days and eighteen of the past 21. Despite that success,
16 states and Puerto Rico are in the red zone (143 cases per million per day). Six of those states had a worse rate than the worst country in the world:

Louisiana 570
Tennessee 311
Georgia 298
Florida 290
Nevada 263
Alabama 236

The following table represents the USA’s daily “new cases” total in thousands. Red backgrounds indicate an increase over the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks Ago 4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago 2 Weeks Ago Last Week This Week
Friday 59 72 75 78 71 63
Saturday 49 62 63 67 58 54
Sunday 46 58 65 56
Monday 51 65 63 62
Tuesday 55 66 67 65

Wednesday 62 72 72 67

Thursday 61 73 69 69

55 67
66 57

Fatalities, USA.

The number of Sunday or Monday COVID deaths is always inconsistent with the results from the rest of the week. Although fatalities were up some 14% from last Sunday (over a small base), there were only two states which exceeded the worst country in the world: Louisiana and Mississippi. Those two, however, were way over the red line at 12.0 and 9.4 respectively.

Only one state was a triple threat in that: (1) it topped every country in the world in the rate of new infections; (2) it topped every country in the world in the rate of new fatalities; (3) it is experiencing more than 12% positive tests. The culprit on Sunday was Louisiana.

The table below shows the USA’s daily COVID fatalities. Red backgrounds indicate an increase over the same day of the previous week. Red numerals indicate an increase over the weekly average from the previous week.

5 Weeks Ago 4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago
2 Weeks Ago
Last Week This Week
Friday 616 849 946 1,141 1,462
Saturday 265 733 813
Sunday 262 380 412
467 534
Monday 378 465 546
Tuesday 994 937 1,122

Wednesday 890 997 1,205
Thursday 960 963 1,150
AVERAGE 625 775 885 1,039

ADDED 7/30: “Americans will be living with the coronavirus for decades”

ADDED 7/22: Trump repeats his inaccurate claim that the USA has one of the world’s lowest mortality rates. There are at least two possible definitions of the ambiguous term “mortality rate”: (1) the percentage of people who die after contracting the disease;  (2) the percentage of all people in a country who die from the disease. The USA does poorly on both scales.

The data lists 218 countries and territories. The USA ranks 150th in “percentage of people with the disease who die.” The USA ranks 209th in “deaths per million population.” The USA does beat several European countries in both criteria: Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy, France and Sweden, but it will pass most of those in “deaths per million population” in time, because they have brought their numbers way down, while the USA continues to soar ever upward.

UPDATED 7/18: Some disquieting trends:

The following graphs tell a clear story of what great work we did in chipping away at the infection rate and the overburdened hospitals when we were sheltering in place, and how we, by our own carelessness, undid all the good we had done.

image host image host image host

The third chart shows the seven-day average, not the actual for each day

The source of the testing and hospitalization data is here.

UPDATED 7/17: Georgia governor Brian Kemp sues the mayor of Atlanta over the city’s mask mandate.

ADDED 7/15: In a masterpiece of reasoning worthy of Descartes, Trump says the U.S. would have half the number of coronavirus cases if it did half the testing. (Of course it would have the same amount of cases today, and more tomorrow, since the undetected cases would cause spreading. It would have fewer cases reported in the short term, but that’s not much of a goal.) Even more important, fatalities and hospitalizations are also rising again. I suppose his solution to that is to close the hospitals and morgues.

ADDED 7/15: The White House has found a new way to get America’s covid numbers under control. Since the administration is unwilling to do what is necessary to control the disease, it is instead setting up a procedure that will allow them to fake the numbers. I think this will backfire. Since so many media organizations are gathering the same numbers independently from the same sources, it will be too obvious when the government’s numbers are false.

UPDATED 7/8: Any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable.” Spain has found that there is no place in the country, no matter how hard-hit, where herd immunity is within reach. The argument against a “herd immunity” strategy is doubly reinforced by the facts that (1) antibodies may not remain active in the system very long; (2) even if the antibodies retain their potency, it is not known whether they can prevent re-infection. The bad news is that the same arguments also suggest that it can’t yet be determined whether a vaccine will be effective.

Here is more regarding rapidly disappearing antibodies and the herd immunity issue: Memory T-cells for Covid are found after the antibodies have disappeared even in the mild cases. What’s unclear is whether the T-cells prevent someone who is reinfected from spreading the disease. If not, herd immunity is not possible. See here

ADDED 7/8: Turns out karma is real, and it can be a bitch. President Bolsonaro of Brazil Tests Positive for Coronavirus, Gee, I can’t imagine how a thing like this could happen – oh, wait (see below) …

ADDED 7/2: This can’t be good. “The novel coronavirus is showing some signs of mutating in a way that may make it easier for the pathogen to spread

ADDED LATE 7/1: As the number of new cases first passed 50,000 per day, less than a week after it first passed 40,000, the president had this to say:

ADDED 7/1: COVID deaths in the USA may be 30% higher than reported. “In the first 3 months of the US coronavirus epidemic, the number of excess deaths in the United States was 122,300, 28% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths, according to an observational study published today in JAMA Internal Medicine.” The discrepancies could be partly due to the intensity and timing of testing. COVID deaths were probably more likely underreported before widespread testing, since the diagnosis could not always be verified. It should also be noted that some deaths are indirectly COVID-related even when completely COVID-free, because people were more reluctant to enter medical facilities to get other symptoms checked during the pandemic.

ADDED 6/26: It is worthwhile to compare the % of positive tests in the USA vs Canada, May 29 to the present. Press on the arrow near the bottom left to animate the map. As you will see, the US and Canada were comparable at the beginning, as indicated by the orange color, but Canada’s color changes rapidly, again and again, getting ever better, while the USA makes no progress. In other words, it’s not increased testing that makes the US infection rate spiral upward, but a failure to control the spread itself. If the USA’s positive rate were less than one percent, ala mainland Western Europe (and now Canada), the number of new cases each day would be below 6,000 per day rather than the existing 40,000+.

ADDED 6/26: It’s not a political thing, it’s a health thing. Even uber-conservative Darth Cheney wears a mask, as did his mentor, Darth Vader.

ADDED 6/26:

Or as Oliver Cromwell told his men, “Don’t bother keeping your powder dry. Just trust in God to stop their bullets.”

UPDATED 6/19: This can’t be good: “The antibodies our bodies develop against COVID-19 can fade away in just two to three months.”

ADDED 6/16: Oxford University scientists determined low-cost steroid, dexamethasone, to be the first drug proven to reduce mortality in severe COVID-19 patients, after a 6,000-patient trial. Note that it is only useful in severe cases. No benefit was found in patients who did not need respiratory support.

ADDED 5/30: Vietnam pulled off the ultimate miracle. They had 97 million people, a long border with China, daily flights from Wuhan … and a COVID-19 death total of ZERO! Not one death. Not even one elderly person. How did they do it? All of my guesses were wrong. I figured it was being bathed in the blood of Jesus, having the localities bid against each other for PPEs, downplaying the virus as an alarmist hoax, shilling for unproven drug cures, investigating bleach cocktails, telling the regional governors to open their areas back up without meeting the criteria set by the health ministry, having the highest national officials refuse to wear masks, and holding large rallies as late as March. Damn, I was SO close! It turns out the true solution was for their prime minister to place his idiot son-in-law in charge of co-ordinating the medical supply chain. That would have been my next guess!

UPDATED 5/22: An MIT study, Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?, had previously suggested that 90% of transmission occurs within a narrow temperature band (37 to 63 F) and a limited band of absolute humidity. The scientists did not claim that transmission ceases outside those temperature and humidity bands, but that the spread occurs more slowly. A newer study from Harvard also shows that summer weather is beneficial, but the study also stresses that weather can’t stop the spread without additional proactive measures from humans.

“Our projections suggest warmer temperature, more humidity, and moderate outdoor UV exposure may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number; however, upcoming changes in weather alone will NOT be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.”

ADDED 5/21: Black Americans are dying of Covid-19 at three times the rate of white people

UPDATED 5/9: In a bizarre irony, hospitals are making mass lay-offs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The institutions are suffering financially because they have had to eliminate all the most profitable parts of their business in order to treat corona victims. In all, 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, 135,000 of those in hospitals.

ADDED 3/28: The data reveal that covid-19 is much more dangerous for men. The data are consistent from country to country.

March 9:

March 4: A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

Feb 26: “We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Feb 26: We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time..”

Feb 26: We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up..”

Feb 26: The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb 25:


Feb 24:

The Dow was at 27,960 that day. One month later it was at 18,592.

Jan 24:

Jan 22: We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”