He once again violated their terms of service, and they once again refused to ban him or block his Tweet. Instead they posted:

“This Tweet violated the Twitter Rules about glorifying violence. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain accessible”

Twitter users are not taking it well that Trump’s personal account gets this preferential treatment, and are calling for him to be banned.

Note that Trump had previously referred to the heavily armed (white) Michigan protesters as “very good people,” while he referred to these unarmed people as “thugs.” He does love to drag out the racist dog whistles. Why doesn’t he just call them the n-word and be done with it.

Meanwhile, get ready for his meltdown when he wakes up!

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Related:

While Trump is batshit crazy to threaten to go full Kent State on the protesters, he also seems to be correct that the situation in Minneapolis is out of control. George Floyd protesters set a Minneapolis police station afire, and protesters set fire to several buildings in the Lake Street corridor, many of them housing small businesses with minority owners. The Minnesota National Guard mobilized more than 500 soldiers to Minneapolis and St. Paul.

Update:

Related story: Twitter is also fact-checking the Chinese

Two of Trump’s close GOP allies in Congress signaled Wednesday a willingness to strip the social media giant of the special speech liability immunity it receives.”

What he doesn’t seem to have thought through is that the speech liability immunity is what allows them to have a Donald Trump Twitter account in the first place. If they become legally liable for every crazy thing he says on the platform, they would have no choice but to delete his account completely. The Joe Scarborough murder accusation, something that could not possibly be true, is the most recent example. Twitter had given Trump plenty of latitude with this because they are protected from liability, but if that protection is removed, Twitter would be legally liable for Trump’s obviously false accusations, meaning that the woman’s family and/or Morning Joe could sue them. They would basically be forced to delete his account, or at least to delete that and other legally actionable tweets.

Trump seems to think Twitter has singled him out for unfair treatment, and he is absolutely right. What he doesn’t seem to grasp is that it has been unfair in his favor. Twitter has been giving him preferential treatment for years. He has composed hundreds of Tweets that would have caused Joe Average to be banned permanently, but he has never even been given a temporary blackout.

Pompeo has claimed that he could not have asked to dismiss the IG to suppress an investigation into his actions because he was not aware of any investigation.

Except he was:

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refused to sit for an interview with the State Department inspector general’s office as part of its probe into the administration’s move to bypass Congress and expedite last year’s $8 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia by declaring an emergency, a congressional aide told CNN Monday.”

He did provide written answers, so he was certainly aware of the investigation.

Also suspicious:

1. Pompeo can’t produce any alternative explanation for why he wanted the IG gone. He just babbles on about the guy being “not additive.” When asked for specifics, he disappears.

2. Pompeo has not denied any of the charges when given the chance to do so.

The inspector general who was dismissed had been investigating Pompeo for using State Department employees to run personal errands, and had been digging into the administration’s having inappropriately fast-tracked a Saudi arms deal.

“When asked whether the allegations were true, he declined to comment. ‘I’m not going to answer the host of unsubstantiated allegations about any of that,’ he said.”

Now in the history of the human race, no politician has ever passed up the chance to say “Of course not. There’s absolutely no truth to it at all.” Probable conclusion: guilty AF.

1. Trump-inspired actions were “retaliatory”? Thank you, Captain Obvious.
2. The OSC has made a “request.” No problem. Request denied.
3. The special counsel will be fired and replaced by a poodle groomer wearing a MAGA hat.
4. Problem solved.

Oh, a benign idiot would still be better than an evil idiot, but would it be too much trouble for just one of our major political parties to give us a candidate who thinks matters through before he speaks?

Biden tweeted his support for the women’s team to keep moving forward in the wake of a judge’s ruling against the USWNT in its equal pay lawsuit. Biden said that he wanted U.S. Soccer to pay the women’s team equally to the men’s team. And if it didn’t, he would withdraw support for the World Cup should he be elected president.”

Yeah, that’s just what we need – a president who ignores due process and issues an executive fiat based on an emotional reaction to an issue he hasn’t studied.

Been there, done that.

The Judge made the exact right decision. The women’s equal pay suit had no merit. The reason they don’t get paid on exactly the same formula as the men is that they were offered that formula and turned it down. When they were negotiating their CBA, one of the offers on the table was “just take the men’s deal.” They didn’t want it because of the high risk involved. Instead of the higher performance-based salaries, they wanted more of the money guaranteed, they wanted longer terms on their contracts, they wanted more players on the team, and they wanted a different set of benefits. In fact, they bargained well. Their total compensation package is actually more than the men’s, even though their salaries are lower. The women get far more in total because they play more games, but they also get slightly more per game. Both sides before the judge stipulated that from 2015 to 2019, the period covered by the suit, the women’s national team averaged $220,747 per game in total payments, for a total of $24.5 million, while the men’s national team averaged $212,639 per game in total payments, for a total of $18.5 million. But now they are suing because the men get paid higher salaries – the same salaries the women were offered and turned down in order to improve the overall package.

The judge understandably ruled that such an Equal Pay Act claim had zero merit. Because he is a judge, he could not say that the claim seems to be a complete scam devised to make lawyers rich.

But I can.

The judge did rule that the rest of their suit could proceed. They also filed some claims under the Civil Rights Act regarding the unequal access to flights and hotels, proper medical services, quality of training facilities, etc. That part of their suit seems to have merit, or is at least debatable enough to require a full trial.

These political scientists have concluded that the coronavirus could impact the national political landscape, with the net result being harmful to conservatives. The logic:

– Older voters are more likely to die from coronavirus.
– Older voters are more likely to vote for Trump.
– The significant fatalities in Pennsylvania and Michigan, for example, could lose Trump enough voters to swing those states blue.

In my opinion, that is completely inaccurate.

Several reasons:

Even if all their assumptions were true, the math doesn’t work. As it currently stands, the death toll in Pennsylvania is likely to be no more than 5,000. Even assuming 4,000 of those are elderly (based on the national trend that 80% of fatalities are aged 65 or more), that would consist of about 2,200 Republicans and 1,800 democrats – a swing of only 400 votes. And that estimate is on the high end because there will likely be fewer than 5,000 fatalities, and Trump is likely to get less than 55% of the elderly vote against Biden (the red team won the 2018 mid-terms by only two points in the 65+ demographic). So the real swing may be just a couple hundred votes, even granting their assumptions.

But their assumptions are not valid. The major problem with their hypothesis lies in a fact they have ignored – that the outbreak disproportionately affects urban minorities – and those voters are overwhelmingly blue, even among the elderly. In the 2018 mid-term elections, elderly black voters voted 88% blue!

Here’s how the math works out, based on the 2018 mid-terms, considering only the lump sum of black voters plus white voters, and temporarily ignoring latinos, asians and others. I’m going to call that black/white elderly group the population sample, so I don’t have to keep retyping the above explanation each time:

Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio of white voters to black is 11-1.
White voters over 65 vote 57-43 red.
Black voters over 65 vote 88-12 blue.

Therefore:

If corona kills both races proportionately to the number of voters, then 53% of the deaths in the population sample will be Republicans.

BUT

If elderly black voters are 16% of the deaths instead of the 8% they represent in the population sample, then the majority of the deaths will be Democrats.

It is absolutely no stretch to think that the percentage of elderly people to die from corona in that population sample will be more than 16% black, possibly far more.

The crazy high percentage of black people who vote Democratic is the very reason why Republicans strive so mightily to keep them from the polls, and why even a slightly higher percentage of black people in any group can turn the group’s majority from red to blue.

The Wisconsin state legislature and several courts overrode the governor’s decisions about postponing the elections or allowing additional time for mail-in ballots. It was a brilliant strategy on the part of the conservatives. Milwaukee was so overridden with corona that 175 of the usual 180 polling stations had to close for lack of staff. This made it extremely difficult to vote in Milwaukee, which is liberal and ethnic. Then the conservatives got a ruling at the 11th hour that mail-in ballots had to be postmarked by election day – even though many people had not yet received the ballots they had requested two weeks in advance!

Meanwhile, voting in the conservative areas upstate was easy and painless.

It was a plan worthy of a Bond villain, and the most important objective (really the only important objective) was to get an ultra-conservative re-elected to the state supreme court.

Only one problem. He lost.

While the GOP puppet masters were focusing on Milwaukee, they turned their backs on Madison, which gave the liberal an astounding 76-24 margin of victory there. Meanwhile, the turnout in Milwaukee was fairly respectable, and the liberal won there 69-31. The state’s other metro area, stretching from Green Bay to Oshkosh (Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago counties), which actually has more voters than Madison, was split quite evenly, but even there it was the liberal with a small advantage.

The Bond villains have to be wondering what went wrong with a plan that seemed foolproof.

UPDATE: after receiving the cease and desist letter, the Super-Pac bought significantly more air time. “The fact that Trump is going to such great lengths to keep the American people from hearing his own words adds to the urgency of communicating them far and wide.”

That was expected. The latest polls had Biden ahead in Florida by 39 points, Illinois by 30, Arizona by 18.

Results:

Excluding votes for other candidates:

  • Biden won Florida 73-27.
  • Biden won Illinois 62-38.
  • Biden won Arizona 59-41

Sanders’ campaign strategists pointed out that a guy is outside their window calling “bring out your dead” and they are thinking of throwing Bernie on the cart.

Never gonna happen

Based on years of history for both Trump and the Trump Organization since 1973, here’s what will happen:

  • He’ll delay and delay by any means available – appeals, frivolous countersuits, ignoring requests for depositions, ordering subordinates not to respond, whatever it takes – forcing opposing litigants to spend money they can’t possibly afford.
  • Meanwhile, Trump will argue the case in public by condemning prosecutors, judges, or any individual seeking justice for having been bilked by one of his scams.
  • If the opposing litigants are willing to go broke to pursue the case, and if Trump finally loses all appeals and has to turn over any documents he doesn’t want to, it will turn out that he and his organization have destroyed any relevant e-mails, and shredded any relevant documents while the case was being delayed by his legal maneuvers.
  • Litigants, prosecutors, federal marshals and judges will bluster about obstruction, but Trump will suffer no consequences. If he’s absolutely backed into a corner, he will claim the evidence was destroyed before the court order. If the court orders him to prove that with documents, he’ll start the whole cycle again, until everyone decides to move on. He’ll never suffer any significant consequences.

He is truly Teflon Don Trump.

Well, he has a point, but even within that obvious fact there are deceptions.

In the immortal and oft-misquoted words of Harry Truman, “The Buck Stops Somewhere Else.”

I don’t know why he would admit that he has no clue what his subordinates are doing, particularly because it’s not true:

Thanks to a good summary in The Atlantic, here is a quick recap of what the stable genius has done so far in response to Corona.

  • He claimed that it was contained in America when it was actually spreading.
  • He claimed that we had “shut it down” when we had not.
  • He claimed that testing was available when it wasn’t.
  • He claimed that the coronavirus will one day disappear “like a miracle.”
  • He claimed that a vaccine would be available in months; Fauci says it will not be available for a year or more.
  • He blamed the Obama administration for impeding coronavirus testing.
  • He stated that the coronavirus first hit the United States later than it actually did. (He said that it was three weeks prior to the point at which he spoke; the actual figure was twice that.)
  • He claimed that the number of cases in Italy was getting “much better” when it was getting much worse.
  • In one of the more stunning statements an American president has ever made, Trump admitted that his preference was to keep a cruise ship off the California coast rather than allowing it to dock, because he wanted to keep the number of reported cases of the coronavirus artificially low. “I like the numbers,” Trump said. “I would rather have the numbers stay where they are. But if they want to take them off, they’ll take them off. But if that happens, all of a sudden your 240 [cases] is obviously going to be a much higher number, and probably the 11 [deaths] will be a higher number too.”
  • He continues shaking hands and ignores the concept of “social distance.”
  • He refuses to set an example by getting tested.
  • In his Oval Office address that was meant to reassure the nation and the markets, he decided to ad-lib the teleprompter speech and misstated his administration’s own policies about incoming cargo, which had to be corrected. Investors heard that and, since they assumed a cessation of trade, stock futures plunged wildly while the president was still speaking.
  • He called for Americans to “unify together as one nation and one family,” despite having referred to Washington Governor Jay Inslee as a “snake” days before the speech and attacking Democrats the morning after it.

And that’s only a partial list of his antics since the crisis began. It does not include the critical government entities he eliminated before the disease was a thing.

CNN’s recap:

People thought Michigan might be close. It wasn’t.

Bernie did so poorly in Mississippi that he probably won’t reach the 15% threshhold to receive proportionate delegates. Mississippi only sends 36 delegates to the convention, but that loss may end up being more costly than his defeat in delegate-rich Michigan, because Bernie may lose the Mississippi delegate count by 30, whereas he’ll probably only lose by a 20-25 delegate margin in Michigan with the proportionate split of that state’s 125 delegates.

Biden won by a landslide in Missouri

Biden will win Idaho by about six points

Bernie will win North Dakota by about thirteen

Washington is neck-and-neck. Bernie has a chance to win, but winning by a fraction does him no good because the delegates get split proportionally.

WaPo summary

CNN summary

Biden won Virginia by a mile (99), but Sanders will make threshold.

Biden will win Alabama by a mile (52). Sanders will make the threshold.

Biden has won North Carolina (110). Sanders will make threshold.

Biden has won Tennessee (64). Sanders and Bloomberg will make threshold.

Biden has won Oklahoma (37). Sanders will make threshold. Bloomberg and Warren will come close, but miss.

Biden has won Arkansas (31). Sanders and Bloomberg will make threshold.

Biden has won Minnesota (75). Sanders will make the threshold, and Warren should barely make it as well.

Biden has won Maine (24). Maine is meaningless since it has few votes and three candidates will split them. (Warren will also make the threshold.)

Biden will win Texas (228), but may not gain much of an edge from the state because Bernie was close, and Bloomberg may make the threshold. (Bloomberg is sitting at 14.9 as I type this.)

Biden has won Massachusetts (91). Sanders and Warren will make the threshold.

Elizabeth Warren finished third in her home state, which is a major setback. It is not clear to me what her motivation may be for staying in, given no credible path to the nomination and the bookies setting 100-1 odds against her.

UPDATE: “Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is taking a day to assess whether she still has a path to the Democratic nomination after a disappointing Super Tuesday in which she failed to net a substantial delegate haul.”

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Sanders has won Vermont by a mile (16), but Biden will make the threshold.

Sanders has won Colorado (67), but will not gain much because the other three will all make the threshold, so the delegates will be split.

Sanders has won Utah (29), but may not gain much because the other three may all make the threshold, so again the delegates could be split quite evenly. (That’s the way it looks now, but Utah’s reporting is extremely slow. All three of them are on the edge, and could drop below 15% after all the votes are counted.)

Sanders will win California (415), where he outspent Biden twenty to one, convincingly. Biden will make the threshold. Bloomberg will probably not make it. He is at 14.3% at the moment. That will be Bernie’s big plum for the evening, and the only place where he will really gain a big edge on Biden.

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Bloomberg won American Samoa. Break out the champagne! (6). He will get at least 4 delegates. Tulsi Gabbard is the only other candidate that made the threshhold and will get at least 1 delegate.

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Note that candidates can obtain delegates by either winning 15 percent of the vote statewide OR hitting 15 percent in a single congressional district, so some candidates will get a smattering of delegates in states where they did not reach 15% statewide. (For example, Bloomberg will win some delegates in California and Texas.)

The exit polls show that Bernie absolutely dominates among young voters and Latinos, but has had no success building black support. He couldn’t even pull 20% of the black vote in California.

It appears that all the planets are aligned against Sanders. With Bloomberg gone, the people siphoning Biden votes are all out. The main person siphoning Bernie votes (Warren) is staying in for the moment.

Trump is favored to win re-election. The betting line on him now ranges from -137 to -162

Best payoffs: You can get 5-1 on Biden, 6-1 on Bernie, 41-1 on Bloomberg, 129-1 on Warren. Many bookies consider it more likely that Hillary will be the next president than Warren. You can get 66-1 odds against Warren winning the nomination, while the longest odds against Hilary are only 40-1.

You can still bet Hickenlooper for president at 979-1! (Righteous bucks!)

She dropped out, and there was much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth, especially in the black community, from that one guy.

(She pulled a solid 0% among black voters in South Carolina.)

It’ll be interesting to see how the Steyer/Buttigieg/Klobuchar withdrawals affect the race. There are no minor candidates of substance remaining – except perhaps Tulsi, who’s barely a blip on the radar. It’s down to the four cranky old white people, as expected, competing to challenge the other cranky old white guy.

Elizabeth Warren is the only woman in that group, but is also now the only living candidate.

And she ain’t that young herself.

(She’s an old coot, but she’s seven years younger than her nearest Democratic rival, and three years younger than the president.)