For the first time in a Fox News poll, Pocahontas has taken a double digit lead over Le Grand Orange. Perhaps more significantly, Biden no longer seems to be more “electable” than Warren. They are beating Trump by identical (50-40) margins.
Trump takes rally into the gutter, hitting Biden: "He was only a good vice president because he understood how to kiss Barack Obama's ass."
— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) October 11, 2019
Years ago, when All in the Family was the most controversial show on TV, nobody could imagine that we would someday elect Archie Bunker to be the POTUS.
Sidebar: so how does this affect Trump’s perception of Mike Pence?
Here, he notes that gas prices are high, and suggests that California shouldn’t insist on fuel-efficient cars!
Always thinking outside the box! Needless to say, if cars were less fuel-efficient, Californians would use more gas, therefore spending even more of their budgets on fuel.
And with this kicker – as they use more gas, an increase in demand is more likely to make prices increase, not decline, so Californians would not only use more gas, but would probably also pay more per gallon!
Gee, I can’t understand why he went bankrupt so many times.
Gasoline Prices in the State of California are MUCH HIGHER than anywhere else in the Nation ($2.50 vs. $4.50). I guess those very expensive and unsafe cars that they are mandating just aren’t doing the trick! Don’t worry California, relief is on the way. The State doesn’t get it!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 9, 2019
Good speech. He convinced me!
Pretty sure he didn’t convince himself.
But I guess we have a chance to see if he is a man of integrity who says what he truly believes, or is simply a hypocrite who makes up whatever argument suits his party at the moment.
(If you’re willing to bet the “integrity” line, I will take that bet.)
Lindsey Graham: A president who doesn't comply with Congressional requests for information is subject to impeachment. pic.twitter.com/Dhw5VBxbf0
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) October 8, 2019
Elizabeth Warren is now the official front runner, per RCP. Their average of the polls now stands at Warren 26.6, Biden 26.4!
They use five credible polls to form the current average, and Warren has the edge in four of them. I personally expect Warren to pull quite a bit ahead, not so much because of Trump’s ongoing slander of Biden, but because of Bernie’s heart attack. I think we are going to see the Warren/Bernie wing consolidate behind Warren. We have seen little evidence of that so far, but I think it is inevitable. IBD shows that Bernie has dropped to 10%, which is the lowest he has been on any poll from a firm rated A- or better.
Kamala Harris is in fifth place behind Mayor Pete, and she’s also losing ground to Andrew Yang. (In fact, Yang beats her 8-to-4 in the latest Emerson poll, which is not used in the RCP average.)
Two of the five polls used in the average, Quinnipiac and IBD, are rated A- or better by the stats nerds at 538. Both of those polls show Warren in the lead. Both of those polls show that Buttigieg is in 4th, and that Yang has pulled into a tie for fifth with Harris.
The office of the White House counsel sent a long letter to Congress saying it would actively resist the impeachment inquiry.
It appears not to have been written by lawyers at all.
That’s not really the interesting thing about the case, because that ruling will drag on through level after level of appeals.
No, the most interesting thing is a contention by Trump’s own attorneys. They did not stick to the basic defense that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted. Instead, they also insisted that releasing his returns would cause him “irreparable harm”!
They know we can see that, right?
The point can’t be related to the fact that he’s the president, because every other recent president has released his returns, as have all major candidates, and it did them no harm at all. Therefore his own lawyers are admitting that he’s different, that his returns are filled with all kinds of shady shit that he doesn’t want people to see!
That’s some good lawyering right there! Is this a Giuliani strategy?
Imagine if everyone was allowed to use this as a legal defense. After all, any good evidence causes the defendant irreparable harm. No, your honor, I can’t allow the video tape of my client and his late wife at the moment of her death to be admitted into evidence. It might cause him “irreparable harm.” Especially the part with the knife.
I’m hearing that the Great People of Utah are considering their vote for their Pompous Senator, Mitt Romney, to be a big mistake. I agree! He is a fool who is playing right into the hands of the Do Nothing Democrats! #IMPEACHMITTROMNEY
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2019
It’s always disheartening to see that our country’s president doesn’t have any idea how the government actually works. Good thing he’s not on “Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?” Just for the record, as any good 5th-grade student knows, senators can’t be impeached. No such thing. The impeachment process is for officials outside the legislative branch.
Senators can be expelled from their chamber, but it requires a 2/3 vote of their colleagues. Good luck with that.
Even people who study conspiracy theories are baffled by this one. Trump seems to have taken the core of a totally preposterous “flat earth” sort of theory and added even more far-fetched details that he just made up on his own
And with good reason. Why would they be? That entire idea makes no sense at all. If you wanted to hide activity that took place on a server, you wouldn’t ship it intact to another location, thus taking a chance that somebody could intercept it, or find it later. You would scrub it, shatter it to pieces or incinerate it, then dump any remaining traces of it into the Pacific, over the deepest part of the Mariana Trench.
The servers do seem to a have a virtual life somewhere. Before CrowdStrike could repurpose the DNC servers and get the organization back online safely, they made a digital image of everything and shipped that evidence to the FBI. I don’t know if that record is still intact somewhere.
Another bizarre detail Trump seems to have concocted is the idea that CrowdStrike “was owned by a very rich Ukrainian.” Nobody can figure out where he even got that idea. One of CrowdStrike’s co-founders, Dimitri Alperovitch, has an Eastern European name, but his family fled from the Soviet Union when he was a child, and they fled Russia, not Ukraine. He was born in Moscow to Russian parents, although even that is irrelevant because, like me, he’s totally American except for his name. He grew up in Chattanooga and took his higher education in Georgia. He looks and talks like your friendly, awkward, slightly doughy uncle. If you are picturing some sinister Bond villain, well, you have it back-asswards. (See for yourself). Could Trump have based his entire wacky scenario on the fact that one smart, avuncular guy has a Slavic-sounding last name? That is bizarre even by his own deviant standard.
“China should start an investigation into the Bidens”
That’s what Trump told reporters as he left the White House to travel to Florida. That came just moments after he said of China:
“If they don’t do what we want, we have tremendous power.”
I can’t imagine why China would want to help Trump get elected. If they ever got involved, it would probably be to help his opponent. It seems to me that they would prefer any sensible person to Mr. Tariff War.
Damn, it’s difficult to keep up with all of Trump’s shenanigans. In that sense, he’s the Bella Thorne of politicians. Yesterday Trump said Adam Schiff was not worthy to carry Mike Pompeo’s “blankstrap.” Get it? ____strap.
He loves Match Game!
He definitely saw this episode, as noted by Jimmy Kimmel:
Well, HR is not my field, but I’m gonna guess that’s a negative.
BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: I’m told that Pompeo’s office in recent days asked State Department HR/IG if they could “discipline” officers for “failure to follow direction” if they cooperate with Congress.
— Scott Stedman (@ScottMStedman) October 1, 2019
WHO CHANGED THE LONG STANDING WHISTLEBLOWER RULES JUST BEFORE SUBMITTAL OF THE FAKE WHISTLEBLOWER REPORT? DRAIN THE SWAMP!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 30, 2019
Man, Trump will believe absolutely anything he hears if he thinks it might be favorable to him. If Sean Hannity said that all-knowing, super-intelligent aliens are among us and support Trump’s presidency, he would tweet about it!
- The same rules have been in place since 2014
- The whistleblower filed his or her complaint on the same form which has been used since May 24, 2018. There are some new online forms, but the whistleblower did not use them.
- Having first-hand knowledge of the event has NEVER been required in order to submit a whistleblower complaint, but the Inspector General, in his investigation. must be able to verify that first-hand evidence exists. None of this has changed during the Trump presidency.
From another thread:
This has nothing to do with the the Joe Biden story. It has to do with Uncle Scoopy’s post in another thread:
“Potential Democratic voters are definitely split into two camps – those who want to return the USA to some kind of normality and business-as-usual, and those that desire a bold break from America’s past.
I am in the former camp: ex-Republican who would support Biden just because he’s a normal human being and is running against a monster. I just don’t know which way I would go in a Warren-Trump match-up. I’m ashamed to type that, but it is true, sadly. Warren is obviously a better human being (who isn’t?), but she’ll get no support from me until I know EXACTLY what my new tax bill is going to look like. Will I have to pay for everyone’s medical care and education? If she can pay for all of her pie-in-the-sky by her wealth tax, corporate taxes, closing tax loopholes and asking the top 1% to do more, then I’m all in, but if it’s all about fucking the middle class once again, then she can return to her wigwam.”
I think you need to think about this. I think you need to think about how much damage a re-election of Trump – essentially saying that the majority of the US should support Trump – would do to the future of the United States. I did not know Americans were so poor that they would put their tax bills ahead of that.
Maybe I am wrong. is there really not much at stake? Scoopy has always been more intelligent, better informed, and just a much clearer thinker than I am. On the other hand. I think that even if far left Democrats sweep Congress, they will know that the surest way to lose Congress and revive the Republican Party would be big tax increases on the majority of voting Americans.
I don’t know what to think about this. Except that Trump is vile, and should never have been President, and should not be President for four more years. NO ONE who has any chance of being nominated by the Democrats could be as bad as Trump. Are Americans really in such dire straits, financially, that their taxes matter more than that? Then Republican policies really have triumphed.
I understand your argument completely, and I sympathize with it, but …
You asked another commenter why he thought it was a poor idea for Democrats to go left. I answered you honestly. I trust that Joe Biden would be fiscally responsible. I don’t feel the same about Sanders and Warren. I’ve seen the rough math on Medicare for All, and it is frightening. I’m willing to sift patiently through all the details to see how all the medical care and education will be paid for, and I have not done that yet, so I can be persuaded that it is feasible, but if it is another “fuck the middle class” scheme, I won’t get on that bandwagon.
The reason I used to be a Republican is that I believe the federal government, especially the executive branch, should stay relatively small. The fact that Trump is an evil entity doesn’t change that. In fact the possibility that a Trump-like character can be elected is all the more reason to restrict executive power. Do you want independents and disgruntled former Republicans to come over to your side? Then don’t make us choose between two radical ideologues who want to break the system, albeit in different ways.
Plus you have to understand that I am still a moderate traditionalist, and there are many like me who hate Trump, and hate the Republicans’ disregard for truth and common sense, but that doesn’t mean our basic ideas have changed. We are not suddenly going to turn into Trotskyites or start singing “L’Internationale” side-by-side with Bernie.
“I want Schiff questioned at the highest level for Fraud & Treason.”
“Was this person SPYING on the U.S. President? Big Consequences!”
“What miserable drones and traitors have I nourished and brought up in my household, who let their lord be treated with such shameful contempt by a low-born cleric?”
Henry II, referring to ol’ Tommy Becket
It’s sad and scary that the President of the United States seems completely unhinged
“President Trump told two senior Russian officials in a 2017 Oval Office meeting that he was unconcerned about Moscow’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election because the United States did the same in other countries.”
What makes this particularly noteworthy and confusing is that Trump was publicly denying that such interference had ever happened. Looking back on it through the prism of this revelation, we see that he obviously realized that it had happened, and by his statements to the Russians, he invited its continuance.
Somebody went to a lot of trouble to create a fake Trump pee tape. Here it is.
Slate’s analysis of the tape. Slate’s key points: (1) it can’t be real, but (2) somebody worked very hard and spent a lot of money trying to make it look real, then just let it languish in obscurity. (It has been around since January, with almost no attention drawn to it.)
We are about to enter a period which may someday be viewed as America’s darkest hour since WW2, perhaps worse that WW2 in one sense. At least then we stood united against a common enemy. Now all we do is fight with one another. It’s more like the Civil War.
And one of them just resigned. To show how rapidly this story is breaking, this news broke ten minutes AFTER I started researching and typing this. It’s crazy!
Needless to say (when you consider the source), the Biden connection is utterly concocted. Like the famous Uranium One “scandal” there is not one word of truth to the whole Biden/Ukraine story, other than that Joe Biden did tell Ukraine they needed to remove the prosecutor in order to get US loan guarantees.Continue reading “A quick overview of Biden-Ukraine”
In theory, both will be complete and unredacted.
UPDATE: Apparently the whistleblower complaint will be redacted.
UPDATE: The DoJ has released its memo concerning the whistleblower complaint.
UPDATE: Here is the transcript of the phone conversation.
The Justice Department Office of Legal Counsel opinion, which was released today, says the whistleblower’s complaint centers on the July phone call between the President and the Ukrainian president, the rough transcript of which was released by the White House earlier today.
The opinion further notes that the intelligence community inspector general said the whistleblower, who is still unknown to the Justice Department, as having “some indicia of an arguable political bias.”
Even so, the inspector general determined that the whistleblower’s complaint was credible, that Trump’s actions could be a violation of the campaign finance law.
Notably, yesterday the General Counsel for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence wrote in a letter to the whistleblower’s attorney, that the whistleblower acted in “good faith.”
I am reserving all judgment on this for now.
- We don’t know who the whistleblower is or what (if any) axes he has to grind.
- We don’t know how much the whistleblower actually knows. Some have suggested he or she had to rely on second- or third-hand knowledge of the events or phone calls in question.
We shall see.
Given that he was preferred by a hearty 0% of Democratic primary voters, per the latest Fox News poll, you have to think that his exit was imminent.
538 has an analysis of this with a great headline: “Why Bill de Blasio’s Campaign Failed (Hint: Nobody Liked Him)”
On the other hand: there are other zero percenters (from that Fox Poll) still in the race, including Julian Castro, who is still qualified for the debates.
SIDEBAR: Marianne Williamson was in a category by herself. While some low-tier candidates like de Blasio had preference scores that rounded to zero percent, Williamson literally had zero percent – not a single supporter. That may have had something to do with using mind power to ward off hurricanes.
Changes since the August poll:
- Elizabeth Warren’s momentum came to a screeching halt. In the August poll, Warren led Bernie 20-10 in the battle for second place (and the party’s left wing). Bernie has retaken the lead 18-16. That’s a massive gain for Bernie. An important key for Bernie is his overwhelming lead over Warren with non-white voters, who are so important to the Democratic base.
- Biden’s lead over Trump widened from 12 points to 14, but Warren, Harris and Sanders all lost a little ground against Trump. All three of the latter retained a lead over Trump, but Harris’s lead is no longer outside the margin of error.
Once again, Trump is shown as vulnerable to losing the white vote to Biden. According to this poll, they are separated by less than the MoE. Once again, let me stress that no Democratic candidate has EVER won the white vote since they’ve been keeping track of it with exit polling (1972), and no Democratic candidate has even come close in this century, so it is not likely to happen.
The Fake News is saying that I am willing to meet with Iran, “No Conditions.” That is an incorrect statement (as usual!).— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 15, 2019
Gee, I wonder why they would say such a thing …
Oh, yeah – this:
“He is prepared to meet with no preconditions,” Pompeo said Tuesday.
Mnuchin said Thursday that Trump had made clear “he would sit down with Rouhani with no condition.”
Or there was this:
Could you have won any of these wacky bets on last night’s debate?
Will any candidate say a curse word or be bleeped?
- Yes +500
On a more serious note: Here are the odds to win the Democratic nomination.
- Elizabeth Warren is now the favorite with the bookies.
- How bad are things for Cory Booker and Beto? They have worse odds than Hillary Clinton. In comparison to other candidates from the Golden Age, they are still slightly ahead of FDR.
- Andrew Yang is still low, but surging. He has pulled into a tie for fifth with Pete Buttigieg.
- DeBlasio has worse odds than Oprah, Michelle Obama, and the hippie chick. As he well deserves.
Obviously, those odds are based on more than the polls.
(SIDEBAR: Tulsi Gabbard, who did not qualify for the debate, is polling better than two of the people who did, Klobuchar and Castro.)
In a hypothetical poll, done by one of the worst pollsters of them all, the Amazon Washington Post/ABC, which predicted I would lose to Crooked Hillary by 15 points (how did that work out?), Sleepy Joe, Pocahontas and virtually all others would beat me in the General Election….— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 11, 2019
- The final WaPo poll actually predicted that Trump would lose the popular vote by four points, with an MOE of +-2.5. Trump actually lost by 2.1 points, comfortably within the margin of error.
- ABC/WaPo, according to the stats nerds at 538, is the best polling organization. They earn the rare A+ rating.
- Every major polling organization shows Sleepy Joe with at least an eight-point lead at the moment.
If Trump were a rational man with normal levels of impulse control, he could have properly responded that polls taken more than a year before the election have a very low predictive value. Worded another way, September of 2019 “don’t mean jack shit.” All that matters is November of 2020.
And, of course, November of 2024, 2028 and especially 2032, when an 86-year-old Trump finally breaks FDR’s record of winning four presidential elections.
That FDR – what a loser!
John Bolton offered that enigmatic and ominous promise about his service with and exit from DJT.
Bolton vs Trump – who cares? Vince McMahon did not become that rich by getting heels to face-off. Ya gots ta have a babyface.
Although I would not object if the face-off occurred in the one place where all celebrity feuds should be settled – Thunderdome.
Oh sure, I believe him. I just figured that Wilbur Ross woke up one day and thought, “I’m going to tell our weather scientists to stop telling the truth.” Yeah, he just did it as a goof. What a rascal! Funny, funny little guy. After all, Wilbur just has that wacky sense of humor, and the Secretary of Commerce has nothing more important on his plate.
One detail in the original story was especially damning for Ross’s role in the scandal. Apparently Mulvaney did not tell Ross to start firing people if they failed to comply. The little weasel added that detail on his own!
As I said, funny guy!
This poll is relatively significant. The WaPo/ABC poll is the only one rated A+ by the statistics nerds at the 538 site.
The key findings are:
- Trump’s approval has dropped by six points in two months.
- The drop is correlated to fears of an economic slowdown.
- We can now see more specifically how Trump is losing the uneducated whites that represent the fundaments of his support. This poll breaks that group down by gender. It turns out that Trump’s support is actually increasing among uneducated white males (now 69%, up 5 points), but is dropping drastically among their female counterparts (now 42%, down 12 points)
- Trump’s rating is also plummeting among college educated white males. The drop was a precipitous 15 points in just two months, from 49% approval to 34%.