Oppenheimer is the prohibitive favorite:

The format of the list below is (Title Odds IMDb RT%)

Oppenheimer -700 8.4 93%
Poor Things +1200 8.4 92%
Barbie +1400 6.9 88%
The Holdovers +1400 8.0 97%
Killers of the Flower Moon +2500 7.7 93%
Anatomy of a Fall +2500 7.8 96%
The Zone of Interest +4000 7.7 93%
American Fiction +5000 7.6 94%
Past Lives +10000 7.9 96%
Maestro +10000 6.6 79%

I have seen them all but Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives. I will see Anatomy tomorrow, but I’m not sure when I’ll see Past Lives. I agree with IMDb voters and critics that Maestro is the weakest entry. I think Bradley Cooper did a great job of putting it all together as the director, but not such a great job on the script.

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Speaking of Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Junior are also heavy favorites for the male acting nods, and Chris Nolan is considered an absolute lock for the direction award. (-2000)

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Last year all the favorites won in the major categories except for Best Supporting Actress, where Angela Bassett was considered a very slight favorite over the winner, Jamie Lee Curtis. That one was considered a three-way horse race among those two and Kerry Condon, and it was so closely matched that it would be fair to say that they were all co-favorites.

Only one long shot came in last year. All Quiet paid off 9-1 for best production design. (I’m assuming that you consider 9-1 a long shot, and that you give a shit about the Oscar for production design).


1985 – Ga Ga Chwala Bohaterom

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1987 – King Size

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1987 – Paciag do Hollywood

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1987 – Season of Monsters

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1991 – Mleczna Droga (The Milky Way)

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1993 – Washing Machine

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1994 – Fatal Past

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1994 – Pret-a-Porter

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1995 – Too Fast, Too Young

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1995 – Wrzeciono Czasu

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1996 – Adrienne Lecouvreur

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1996 – Self-Portrait with a Lover

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1997 – Happy New York

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1997 – The Sundial

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1999 – Ajlawju

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2003 – Ubu the King

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2006 – Summer Love

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AKA “Kigsize”

She’s kind of the Gulliver in this scene, as a pseudo-Lilliputian crawls over her.


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You Americans may not be aware of her, or you may vaguely remember her from Robert Altman’s Ready-to-Wear, in which she briefly bared her bottom. The curvy actress is an absolute legend in Polish cinema, having done some of the sexiest scenes of the past several decades. I don’t have the time at this moment to cover her entire nudography, but here are some of her classic frontals:


1987 – Pociag do Hollywood

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1995 – Wrzeciono Czasu

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1996 – Self-Portrait With a Lover

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2006 – Dead Man’s Bounty

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She’s in her sixties now and still acting. She looks very different these days, so I don’t think there will be any more nude scenes. No need. She has done her share and then some. Her role in Self-Portrait is one of the greatest nude performances of all time, but she’s done many others approximately as impressive.

In that recent photo, she looks exactly like my paternal grandmother. Jeez, I wonder if my busia was hot when she was young! Hard to imagine.