It now seems certain that Biden will win the popular vote (96% likelihood). In fact, the Sleepy One has about a 93% chance to get more than 50% of the vote. Of course, that is irrelevant, but 538 feels that Biden’s chances also look excellent in the Electoral College.

The odds makers have a different take on it. Based on the odds, Trump has an implied 40% chance of winning the Presidency again. “On the 12th October 2016, Donald Trump’s 2016 election odds implied he only had a 19.1% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. Therefore, according to sportsbooks, Trump is in a much better situation this time round.”

A salient fact is that 75% of the money has been wagered on Trump in recent weeks.