A look at the exit polls
The sharpest divisions are, in order of the distance between them: race, religion, age, gender, education. (Age and gender are actually about even in terms of the splits.)
In general, minorities voted 76% blue, compared to 44% for whites.
In general, Protestants and Evangelicals voted 42% blue, compared to 60% for all others. This is a key division because the two groups are not only sharply divided, but of nearly equal size.
In general, people under 45 voted 61% blue, compared to 49% for older Americans. (Surprisingly, people under 45 represent only about 1/3 of the voters.)
In general, women voted 59% blue, compared to 47% for men.
In general, the college educated voted 59% blue, compared to 49% for others.
Here’s an interesting fact I never noticed before: there are no additional significant splits within the minority votes. Younger minorities vote like their elders. Female minorities vote like their male counterparts. College-educated minorities vote like those without educations. This is completely opposite to the white group, which is deeply divided in all respects: males are more conservative; older people are more conservative; and the poorly educated are more conservative.
On the basis of the aggregated data, education doesn’t seem to divide Americans as deeply as other factors, but that is misleading because of a point I just noted: educated minorities vote exactly the same as uneducated minorities. When you look at the splits among whites alone, they become more sharply defined. That is Trump’s base: the poorly educated white people. And that’s the them-vs-us that defines America at the moment. It’s the uneducated white people against everyone else, and they are more than 40% of the electorate, so they are pouring red all over the ballot boxes. (See the chart below)
If you consolidate the info in that chart, it looks like this:
|
Voted Democratic |
Voted Republican |
| whites with no college degree |
37% |
61% |
| everyone else |
64% |
34% |
There is no specific exit poll data for older white men with no degree, but you have to figure that is the truly major red territory. It may split 4-1 for the GOP. President Trump and some of his surrogates know exactly how to play to that audience. (Sean Hannity is a good example of someone who not only plays to them, but is actually one of them. Trump himself is not an older, uneducated white man, but you would certainly assume he was if you came out of a coma not knowing who he is, then met him socially.)
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