This role is deadly serious. Sacha is taking on a dramatic role that could get him in Emmy territory.

Blurb: “THE SPY, starring Sacha Baron Cohen, is inspired by the real-life story of former notorious Mossad agent, Eli Cohen, who successfully goes undercover in Syria and ultimately changed the course of Israel’s history. “

And that lead is 26 points among independent voters.

Most shocking, Biden and Sanders now lead Trump among white voters! That is a very big deal. In the history of national exit polls, 1972 to the present, no Democratic candidate has ever won the white vote over the Republican! (Bill Clinton came very close, but those results were polluted by third party candidates.) In the past five elections, no Democrat has come within 10 points of winning the white vote.

I should note that polls taken so far from the election have approximately zero predictive power. They indicate how the election might go if held today, within their margin of error of course, but public support for candidates is volatile.

Plus Biden may not get the nomination. The various polls seem to present us with conflicting views. Despite Biden’s fading numbers in other polls, this Quinnipiac poll shows Biden far in the lead, with 32% preference, compared to 19% for Pocahontas and 15% for Bernie. Warren has risen steadily from 4% in March to her current 19%. Kamala Harris started in the 7-8 range in March, and zoomed to 20 after the first debate. She was a serious contender there for a while, in a close second place on July 2, with essentially all of her new-found support coming from former Biden supporters, but then she plummeted right back to the 7-8 range after the second debate. Sic transit gloria mundi.

On the other hand, even without Biden in the race, Trump is looking weak. In all match-ups against the top five candidates, Trump is fixed at 38-40% of the vote. The support for the Democrat varies, but even Mayor Pete is nine points ahead.

Continue reading “Biden’s lead over Trump increases to 16 points”